Don’t Believe the Hype – Expect a Worsening of U.S.-China Relations

If you receive your news via Donald Trump tweet, or courtesy of proclamations by Larry Kudlow, you’d be forgiven for eagerly anticipating a groundbreaking U.S.-China trade deal to be announced imminently, and thinking such a deal will save the global economy from rolling over into a serious downturn as well as pacify geopolitical tensions between the number one and number two economies in the world. However, if you expect these things, I don’t think you’re paying attention.

Before we get a little into the weeds, let me be clear that I have no idea what Trump and Xi will, or will not, announce regarding trade. Trump seems fanatically obsessed with the stock market, and Xi’s been dealing with an economy in a tailspin. It’s certainly possible they come up with some sort of agreement they think will restore confidence in the global economy and convince people the last few months were nothing more than a “glitch.” It’s also important to understand this positive outcome appears to be assumed by the stock market and investors generally. Anything less might be seen as a colossal disappointment.

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Liberty Links 3/3/19

Liberty Links will only remain publicly available for two more weeks. If you’ve supported my work over the past year, I’ll continue to provide links via email blast. If you want to continue to receive the links post each week, simply become a Patron or support the site in other ways. Top Links Modern Monetary Theory Isn’t … Read more

You Can’t Stop the Cycle

2018’s valuation records are astounding in that they show the S&P 500 to be more fundamentally over-valued than it was at the prior two historic stock market valuation peaks in 1929 and 2000, bona fide speculative manias.

– From Crescat Capital’s recent investor letter

Cycles are perhaps the most natural and common occurrence in the universe. The planets orbit the sun, seasons change, day turns to night and night back to day, humans are born, grow old and die.

Some of these cycles are more pleasant to think about than others, but their consistent occurrence remains factually unassailable. Indeed, it could be said that a human life itself consists of an endless series of encounters with various cycles. Cycles of the natural world and cycles created by humans themselves. Human created cycles are the focal point of today’s piece.

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Liberty Links 2/24/19

Liberty Links will only remain publicly available for another month. If you’ve supported my work over the past year, I’ll continue to provide links via email blast. If you want to continue to receive the links post, simply become a Patron or support the site in other ways. Top Links America’s 1% Hasn’t Had This Much … Read more

Important Changes at Liberty Blitzkrieg

From time to time, I think it’s necessary and healthy to take a step back and reflect on what you’re doing and why. I recently did that with regard to my work and website.

When I quit my job on Wall Street nearly a decade ago, I had no idea how life would unfold. I walked away from a highly paid position to pursue some unknown future, a simultaneously exciting and terrifying decision. I was a single guy living in NYC back then, with no pressing obligations to anyone other than myself. I’m now married with three kids in Colorado.

I decided to leave financial services upon becoming disgusted by industry practices and the unconscionable public betrayal perpetrated by the U.S. government and Federal Reserve via its massive bailout of the few at the expense of the many. In short, the most powerful players in our society sacrificed the long-term health of the U.S economy and the nation’s overall social cohesion to save a corrupt and unethical industry and reward the very people responsible for the calamity. We don’t have a meritocracy or competitive free markets, we have a rigged system based on corruption and cronyism where the most dangerous and destructive amongst us consistently fail upward.

The Wall Street bailout, including the failure to prosecute bank executives for the extreme fraud of the pre-crisis period and subsequent economic catastrophe, was the most formative event of my life. It forced me to confront the reality of the sort of country and economy I was living in, and what I saw wasn’t pretty. Since I could never look at the world the same way again, I couldn’t live my life the same way either.

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Liberty Links 2/17/19

If you appreciate my work and want to support independent content creators, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit the Support Page. Top Links Do You Believe in the Deep State Now? (The American Conservative) Senate Has Uncovered No Direct Evidence of Conspiracy Between Trump Campaign and Russia (You don’t say…NBC) U.S. National Debt Soars to a Record $22 … Read more

YouTube Will Determine What ‘Conspiracy’ Is and Stop Recommending Such Videos

While the evolution of Google’s YouTube from a free expression platform into something entirely different has been underway for a while, it just took another step in a very short-sighted and restrictive direction. NBC News reports:

YouTube has announced that it will no longer recommend videos that “come close to” violating its community guidelines, such as conspiracy or medically inaccurate videos…Chaslot said that YouTube’s fix to its recommendations AI will have to include getting people to videos with truthful information and overhauling the current system it uses to recommend videos.

There’s a lot to unpack here so let’s get started. First, it appears YouTube has announced the creation of a new bucket when it comes to content uploaded to the site. It’s no longer just videos consistent with company guidelines and those that aren’t, but there’s now a category for “conspiracy or medically inaccurate videos.” This is a massive responsibility, which neither YouTube or anyone else seems fit to be judge and jury. In other words, YouTube is saying it’s comfortable deciding what is “conspiracy” and what isn’t. Which brings up a really important question.

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Liberty Links 2/10/19

If you appreciate my work and want to support independent content creators, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit the Support Page. Top Links Western Media Fall in Lockstep for Cheap Trump/Rubio Venezuela Aid PR Stunt (The lies and propaganda coming from the Trump admin on Venezuela is off the charts, FAIR) Saudi Arabia and Its Coalition Partners Have … Read more

Recession. Revolution. Recovery.

– Saturn Devouring His Son (image above) is the name given to a painting by Spanish artist Francisco Goya. It depicts the Greek myth of the Titan Cronus, who, fearing that he would be overthrown by one of his children, ate each one upon their birth. 

Deny it all you want, but the global economy appears to be headed into recession. It became clear the cycle had started to turn once the FAANG stock bubble popped and the U.S. stock market plunged 20% late last year. The optimists among us insist this is merely a growth scare or blip as we saw in 2016, but that scenario looks increasingly unlikely.

As usual, the bond market tends to give us signals before more obvious evidence emerges. As such, I received a lot of insight from the following tweet.

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Liberty Links 2/3/19

If you appreciate my work and want to support independent content creators, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit the Support Page. Top Links America Has Spent $5.9 Trillion on Wars in the Middle East and Asia since 2001, a New Study Says (CNBC) Venezuela Crisis: Former UN Rapporteur Says U.S. Sanctions Are Killing Citizens (You won’t hear about … Read more