Debut Interview with The Nomad Capitalist

I’m very pleased to make available my debut interview with Andrew Henderson of the Nomad Capitalist.  The range of topics discussed here is extensive.  From the IRS scandal, to Bitcoin and gold, to whether or not it makes sense to stick around in the good old USA to fight for liberty.  It’s always enjoyable to … Read more

Gold Demand in Dubai Now Running at 10x Normal Levels

The disconnect between the massive physical buying of gold versus the falling paper derivatives price has now become nothing short of extraordinary.  While we have all seen the figures describing the gold buying frenzy in China and India, now we have some more detailed information about what is happening on the ground in Dubai.  Incredibly, we find that since the April paper price crash, 50 tons of gold has been purchased, which is the equivalent of the entire amount of 51.8 tons purchased in all of 2012.

One of the most comprehensive looks at the massive physical versus paper disconnect I have read is courtesy of Goldbroker.com, a company that specializes in physical bullion stored in Switzerland.  I suggest checking out their latest Gold Market Report.

Now from Emirates 24/7 we find that:

Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply.

Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.

According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, “Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market.”

The usual numbers that Schubert refers to are the same as the demand seen since April. According to World Gold Council data, total consumer demand for gold in the UAE (not just Dubai) stood at 51.8 tonnes for the entire year 2012, which means that demand was about 4.31 tonnes per month during last year.

Compared with that, as Schubert mentions, Dubai demand in the past few weeks has been 50 tonnes plus ‘usual’ numbers, in effect reflecting the massive surge in interest that gold has seen in this past few weeks.

“We have been running out of gold coins and bars even before they reach our stores,” he added. “There are people who are ‘pre-booking’ gold bars with us, and they collect it once new supply arrives,” he said. 

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Guest Post: Why Policy Has Failed

The essay below is courtesy of Doug Rudisch, a friend and former fund manager, who I have known and respected since my days on Wall Street.  I am extremely grateful that he took the time and effort to so insightfully write on some of the greatest issues facing our nation today and to provide this content to my readers.  What follows below are some of the most powerful passages from his piece and the entire thing is embedded at the end. The whole thing is simply excellent.

What I can say with absolute certainty is that I have lost a lot of faith and trust in the system. And I am not the only one. This sentiment is running at all-time highs amongst business leaders (their collective in-actions prove it) and guys on the street. It is both sides of the barbell and middle that are upset. Often it’s one or the other, but not all three. This time it’s not at an external state, it’s directed inwards. That is a tough problem to solve. Jingoism is not the answer either as we already tried that.

If there is no faith in the system, it has a really hard time working. And I mean real underlying faith and trust in the system, as opposed to the confidence born from economic steroid injections or entitlements. These are valid notions, but as a point of clarity I am talking about a something different. There also is a subtle but important distinction between faith and trust versus confidence. Faith and trust are longer term and more powerful concepts.

There is more going on than a temporary lull in animal spirits that current fiscal and monetary policy will cure. If that was the case, it would be working already.

dougpic

However as the above chart shows, things clearly changed in the 2003 and 2009 profit cycles as corporate profits surged while employment did not. My explanations:

Starting with the 2009 cycle first. In the 2008 downturn companies eliminated a lot of jobs. The depth of the downturn forced them to make the tough decision. Normally that kills consumer spend due to wage loss. But the government plugged the revenue gap with transfer payments and direct investment. See the green line go nearly vertical and it is fascinating how profit growth has mirrored the trajectory of debt growth. The consumer has started to dis-save again as well. Thus corporations kept the revenue, lost the labor, and voila record margins. You could argue unemployment is being subsidized. Like anything else, when something is subsidized, you tend to get a lot of it.

For example, see the recent new investor activity in single family homes and farmland of all things, including equity hedge funds who apparently think homes are like stocks. Maybe it’s a sign that other asset categories (equities and credit) are getting toppy or inflation expectations are increasing when hedge funds begin to foray into the single family housing market and farmland (some having little or no prior experience in these markets). At any rate, it seems odd and not good to me when policy results in hedge funds buying single family homes and farms.

Sorry Mr. Greenspan we have seen where valuing assets solely on the basis of current rates got us. If we should do that, baseball cards and chewing gum would also be great investments today. My suspicion is from here baseball cards and chewing gum will hold their value over time better than the typical company trading at 15x earnings derived from profit margins that are twice its average levels. And in point of fact according to the CPI the price of candy and chewing gum increased 31% between the years 2000-2012, while the S&P index including this year’s rip is only up 6% since 2000. Yes it matters what the price is that one pays for an asset!

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Rasmussen: 81% of Americans are Paying More for Groceries

What?!  Someone get the Bernanke on the line ASAP!  Apparently the remaining 19% of Americans work at TBTF banks and the Federal Reserve.  From Rasmussen: Most adults continue to say they are paying more for groceries than they were a year ago, and they expect that amount to be even higher next year. A new … Read more

CME President on Gold: “They Don’t Want Certificates, They Want the Real Product”

What’s interesting about gold, when we had that big break two weeks ago we saw all the gold stocks trade down significantly, we saw all the gold products trade down significantly, but one thing that did not trade down, was gold coins, tangible real  gold.  That’s going to show you, people don’t want certificates, they … Read more

Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society Runs Out of Gold…Importing from Switzerland and London

Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and its President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today.  Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical … Read more

Bit-Dating Has Arrived: OK Cupid Now Accepts Bitcoin

At the end of the day, the ultimate value of Bitcoin will have nothing to do with speculators or DDOS attacks.  The ultimate value of Bitcoin will be determined by end market adoption, which despite the dramatic rise and fall in recent weeks, appears to be continuing at an extremely rapid clip.  I supported Bitcoin publicly when it was only trading at 10, well before the recent run-up and mainstream financial media hype.  I support it just as much today as I did then, and I think the prospects have never looked better for the crypto-currency than right now.

In the latest news, we discover the OK Cupid dating site has decided to accept it as payment.  From Forbes:

As a company whose business proposition has gone from kind of weird to utterly commonplace in the space of a few years, OK Cupid has always been comfortable with novelty. Now it’s embracing a new technology that strikes a lot of people as too futuristic for comfort: Bitcoin.

Starting today, premium users of the IAC-owned dating service can pay for their subscriptions with the untraceable peer-to-peer digital currency.

OK Cupid CEO Sam Yagan says this is a forward-looking move, driven not by user demand but by the imperative to embrace a technology that’s not going away.

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Paul Krugman Goes on the Attack: Calls Bitcoin “Antisocial”

Anyone on the fence with regard to Bitcoin should consider coming to the side of supporting it after reading Paul Krugman’s ridiculous and riddled with errors hit-piece in the New York Times this weekend.  The key tipoff as to where he is coming from in this absurd editorial is in the title itself in which he calls Bitcoin an “antisocial network.”  Anti-social is one of the most favored collectivist/fascist terms and concepts of all time.  A term meant to demonize those in a particular society that think for themselves rather than conform to whatever the oligarchs or dictators in charge of the state deem appropriate or “social.”  Jews would have been seen as “antisocial” in Nazi Germany, just as anyone with glasses would have been deemed “antisocial” in Pol Pot’s Cambodia.  This is a very dangerous term and one that is intended to guilt people into the acceptance of a stale, authoritarian and conformist society.

Now let’s get to some of the more ridiculous passages from his editorial.  From the New York Times:

The economic significance of this roller coaster was basically nil. But the furor over bitcoin was a useful lesson in the ways people misunderstand money — and in particular how they are misled by the desire to divorce the value of money from the society it serves.

The similarity to goldbug rhetoric isn’t a coincidence, since goldbugs and bitcoin enthusiasts — bitbugs? — tend to share both libertarian politics and the belief that governments are vastly abusing their power to print money. At the same time, it’s very peculiar, since bitcoins are in a sense the ultimate fiat currency, with a value conjured out of thin air.  Gold’s value comes in part because it has nonmonetary uses, such as filling teeth and making jewelry; paper currencies have value because they’re backed by the power of the state, which defines them as legal tender and accepts them as payment for taxes. Bitcoins, however, derive their value, if any, purely from self-fulfilling prophecy, the belief that other people will accept them as payment.

This paragraph is so riddled with blatant errors it is almost difficult to know where to start.  First, either Krugman is extremely lazy and intellectually dishonest by misdefining “fiat,” or he is purposefully misleading his readers with full knowledge that they have zero understanding of money and will simply take his word for it.  As I have mentioned many times before, fiat is defined as:  1. A formal authorization or proposition; a decree and 2. An arbitrary order.  Synonyms include: decree, diktat, directive, edict, rescript, ruling.  So Bitcoin is actually the exact opposite of fiat money.

Second, he implies that the value of gold comes from its uses in jewelry and dentistry.  Really Paul?  I guess Vladimir Putin must have some really rotten teeth and I suppose that Fort Knox still holds billions of gold bricks in anticipation of a massive dental epidemic sure to hit the United States in the near future.  Absolutely ridiculous.

The practical misconception here — and it’s a big one — is the notion that we live in an era of wildly irresponsible money printing, with runaway inflation just around the corner. It’s true that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have greatly expanded their balance sheets — but they’ve done that explicitly as a temporary measure in response to economic crisis. I know, government officials are not to be trusted and all that, but the truth is that Ben Bernanke’s promises that his actions wouldn’t be inflationary have been vindicated year after year, while goldbugs’ dire warnings of inflation keep not coming true.

Temporary?  So I suppose four and a half years of rampant money printing and bank bailouts is “transitory” in Krugman’s mind.   I’d love to ask Krugman when this becomes “un-temporary” in his mind.  Ten years?  Twenty?  I’d love to know.  For some background, I wrote a lengthy piece called It’s Transitory back in June, 2011.

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500 Tons of Paper Gold Dumped on Friday, What’s Next?

I wish I knew the answer to the above question.  As of the last year or so, I admittedly have not had a good feel about the direction of gold and silver prices.  I always thought that as things got more severe and more terminal, the prices of assets we see on our screens would … Read more

The New Orwellian Term for Americans that Disagree with Government: “Paper Terrorists”

I first started writing publicly about how the U.S. government was going to ultimately switch the “war on terror” to an internal focus and demonize American citizens that express dissent back while I still worked on Wall Street, five or six years ago.  While I was mocked and accused of hyperbole at the time, it has become quite clear that this is exactly the direction we are headed in…and fast. Let’s not forget that the FBI classified peaceful Occupy Wall Street protestors as terrorists as that movement was gaining momentum.  Furthermore, why else would the Department of Homeland Security be buying ammo in such enormous quantities unless the U.S. oligarchy saw its real enemy as the American public itself? The 99.99%.  From the LA Times:

Finch teaches police and public officials around the country how to deal with self-described “sovereign citizens” like Wright. Finch and his partner, Det. Kory Flowers, have trained nearly 15,000 police and 5,000 public officials to combat sovereigns, zealots who refuse to recognize government authority in virtually any form.

Violent confrontations are rare, but the FBI says at least six police officers have been killed by sovereigns since 2000. A man tied to the movement shot and killed a California Highway Patrol officer who stopped him in Contra Costa County last year. A responding officer shot and killed the assailant.

The agency calls sovereigns — who number between 100,000 and 300,000 — a “domestic terrorist movement.”

You’ve gotta love the FBI.  They can’t recognize or jail any of the financial terrorists that have already pulled off the greatest heist in American history and continue to plunder, but once an average citizen complains about their government being criminal and corrupt, THEY are somehow the terrorists.

“To them, a police officer is just a man in a Halloween costume,” Finch said.

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