Many people are coming to quick takes on yesterday’s extraordinary decision by the U.S. government to recognize an unelected opposition leader as interim President of Venezuela based on their view of Maduro and his government. Similar to the emotional responses to those first clips of the Covington students and Nathan Phillips, such superficial opinions feel good and confirm biases, but don’t tell you much about what’s really going on. From my seat, the move by the Trump administration to choose the leader of Venezuela by diktat is just straight up imperial geopolitics. Nothing more, nothing less.
A month ago, I reassessed my geopolitical assumptions in the post, Is U.S. Geopolitical Strategy Experiencing a Monumental Shift? In it, I detailed how U.S. foreign policy seemed to be shifting toward a focus on containing China, which would lead to a far more serious confrontation between the world’s number one and number two economies.
I’ve now seen enough to seriously consider that we may be entering an entirely new geopolitical environment dominated by vastly increased tensions between the U.S. and China. If so, it will likely last a lot longer than you think as leaders in both China in the U.S. will be looking for a scapegoat as their crony, financialized economies struggle under unpayable debt and unimaginable levels of corruption.
With the attempt to push Russia back in Syria a clear failure, the neocons in Trump’s administration quickly got to work on their next scheme. Enter Venezuela.
Venezuela. Wow this story really has it all.
Bad guy with a mustache, oil reserves, a Russian ally, gold.
Just another act in the desperate attempt to preserve a uni-polar empire.— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) January 24, 2019
I’ll get to all that in a bit, but first let’s discuss how this relates to the increased tensions with China. As reported by The Guardian earlier today:
Venezuela has been one of Beijing’s closest allies in Latin America, and the largest recipient of Chinese financing, taking as much as £38bn in loans by 2017. China is Venezuela’s largest creditor, prompting concerns that as Venezuela’s economy spirals, state assets could fall into Chinese hands, as was the case with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
It is in Beijing’s interest to support Maduro, given that a new government could refuse to honour Venezuela’s debt obligations to China. Maduro met China’s president, Xi Jinping, last year and toured Mao Zedong’s mausoleum in Beijing, and the countries agreed on £3.8bn in loans and more than 20 bilateral agreements.
Of course, Russia is also a close ally of Maduro:
Russia’s Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with Maduro and offered him strong support in a political crisis he said had been “provoked from abroad”, a Kremlin statement said. “Destructive interference from abroad blatantly violates basic norms of international law,” Putin was quoted as saying…
Russia’s prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, described the US support for Guaidó as a “quasi-coup” and accused the US of hypocrisy, asking rhetorically how Americans would react if the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, declared herself president.
Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said a US military intervention in Venezuela would be catastrophic.
Russia is an important source of financial support to the Venezuelan government, providing billions of dollars in loans, some as pre-payment for future deliveries of oil. Last month Russia dispatched two nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers to the country in a further show of support.
Once you start getting all these facts, it becomes clear the U.S. isn’t trying to help Venezuelans achieve “freedom and democracy,” but the goal is to push back against the empire’s primary geopolitical rivals who have been busy working on creating a multi-polar world order.
Let me be blunt.
If Maduro was a good client state of the U.S. instead of allied with Russia and China, not only would the U.S. government not be doing anything, it would actively be helping him.— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) January 24, 2019
The next question to ask is why does Venezuela matter to Russia, China or anyone else? Well, natural resources of course. Many of you have probably seen it thrown around that Venezuela has the largest proved oil reserves in the world, and this is indeed correct. Much of it is heavy oil, which is far more expensive and labor intensive to extract, but there’s an enormous amount of energy production potential sitting there in Venezuela.
As I was researching this piece, I turned to a data source I once poured over for hours at a time back when I was an oil analyst, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Here are a couple of relevant charts to see what’s at stake in Venezuela.
Then there’s the gold part of the saga, which is equally fascinating. In case you forgot, Hugo Chavez didn’t make any friends in the empire back in 2011 when he repatriated around 160 tonnes of gold from banks in the United States and Europe. But the story doesn’t end there. As Reuters reports:
The government of Nicolas Maduro has since last year been seeking to repatriate about $550 million in gold from the Bank of England on fears it could be caught up in international sanctions on the country.
Its holdings at the bank more than doubled in December to 31 tonnes, or around $1.3 billion, after Venezuela returned funds it had borrowed from Deutsche Bank AG through a financing arrangement that uses gold as collateral, known as a swap, one of the sources said.
Venezuela last year started carrying out gold barter operations with Turkey to import food following U.S. sanctions that have made international banks reluctant to handle Venezuelan transactions.
The motivation for paying back the funds from the Deutsche swap was not immediately evident. But redeeming the swap would give Venezuela more gold for barter operations with Turkey…
Calixto Ortega, president of Venezuela’s central bank, met with Bank of England officials in December to discuss repatriating the gold but was unable to convince them, according to sources familiar with the situation.
I don’t think the U.S. takes kindly to using gold for barter, nor do I think the Bank of England is interested in giving the remaining gold back. The Venezuela affair really has it all, and as usual, the real story is far more interesting and complicated that the garbage fed to you by mass media and assorted pundits.
Come to your own conclusions about what’s going on and whether or not you approve of it, but you should always have as much background information as possible.
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The United States always treats Latin America (including Mexico) like a red headed step child, and feels it can “do what it wants” to countries like Chile, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Cuba.
The U.S. is unlikely to get its way this time as Russia and China “want to keep their assets” intact, and a new Prez may default on debt obligations as Michael suggested.
It really shows the deep sociopathy and malignant predatory nature of the American government and its corporate cronies, as I am sure they are salivating over Venezuelan oil reserves – the U.S. could have easily been quite helpful to the Venezuelan government with loan guarantees, food shipments, and medical support. This would have burnished America’s image in Latin America and the world at large. But no, the U.S. pursues the potentially violent coup option – it likes that.
It seems below this blog has been “discovered” by the US/NATO/Five Eyes trolls. No US/NATO Empire? Sorry it waddles, quacks and swims like the Empire duck it is.
The trolls need to be reminded that Russia and China had invested heavily in Gadhaffi’s Libya… until the Klinton Krime Kabal decided to “liberate” Libya by manipulating the UN into passing a “no-fly zone”, which actually meant a “free-bombing zone” for NATO. So Putin decided that the US would get away with no such BS in Syria. The butt-hurt US war parties/Deep State are now going after Venezuela thinking no other South American US-backed regimes will fill the role Iran is playing in Syria. This means Russia and China will have to financially support/arm Venezuela and its army and possibly directly intervene militarily. There are already Russian military “contractors” protecting Maduro, with Russian navy ships “visiting” on a regular basis.
The bottom line? US-backed oiligarchies want control of Venezuela’s massive reserves because the fracking-scam “boom” in the US is due to implode on higher interest rates and public environmental push-back. Add in the US is losing what little control it had over the Saudi butchers and has failed to isolate and subdue Iran.
It Trump/Trudeau/et. al. are too poorly informed or stupid enough to think Russia and China are going to quietly walk away like they did in Libya, NATO is in for a big surprise. The Syrian model is closer to the likely path. Trump needs to figure out that he is COMMANDER IN CHIEF of the US military and the FBI/CIA/NSA/etc. fall under his direct control as the top Executive in the US gov’t. Two signatures, one for the military and one for the CIA/FBI/NSA and this all stops. Immediately.
The US-petro-dollar as the world’s sole reserve currency system is bankrupt. A world war is the only way to clear that massive debt off the books to US/NATO/bankster/Deep State advantage by forcing the vanquished nations to pay “reparations”. It worked for WWI and II, resulting in the Bretton Woods scam. Russia and China have been stockpiling gold while the US can’t even give back the WWII “safekeeping” gold it owes worldwide.
The US/NATO Empire is dying by inches, and each confrontation like we are seeing in Syria and now Venezuela weakens the US, not strengthens it. Same for US sanctions on anything that moves… the US war-dogs bark, but the Russian/Chinese/rest-of-the-world caravan moves on.
Bull Shit. America has no “empire.” We defeated Hitler and Tojo and the only land we required of anyone was to bury our dead. Go to the cemeteries of Normandy (which are American soil, deeded by France as their thanks to us) and think about it.
We don’t have Sesame Credit here (yet) Bruce. No points are awarded for posting mindless patriotism.
Why do we have nearly 800 military bases in 70 countries if we have no empire? How many wars are we in now, both declared and undeclared?
Leave WW2 behind and catch up with the rest of us. It’s been an interesting seven decades in the interim, starting with the Bitter Lake agreement in 1945.
It was Britain and Russia that defeated Hitler.Read History.
You are most correct Bruce. Tengen is completely ignorant about the subject. Helmut Beintner says read history and myself being a historian i have never heard such a false statement about WW2. Britain was beaten by the Germans until the US started pumping food in to keep them alive. They would have starved to death. The US had to fight to deliver every boatload of supplies to them. Britain became another state of the US. I would just love to meet these imbeciles face to face. What you say is the truth.
You didn’t contradict anything I said, Nobaddog. Perhaps you could be more specific about how I’m ignorant?
The urge to reduce cognitive dissonance is a powerful psychological phenomenon. Denying the obvious evidence that the United States (Inc.) runs and continues to expand and control a global-focused empire helps this immensely. Denial of this also helps to justify/rationalise the continued atrocities hidden behind a cloak of “they hate us for our freedoms” and “we’re supporting and implementing democracy/freedom” via our foreign policy. You may not perceive the US as an empire and all the negative behaviours and actions that accompany such a geopolitical state, but an awful lot of analysts do and virtually every other nation on the planet does–most just go along with it because they are vassals and receive some small benefit (at least their political class does) by doing so. It is those sovereigns that don’t fall in step with the US that become the target of mass propaganda and interventions–think Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Libya, China, Venezuela, etc..
Helmut: I really don’t think so. GB was ruined as was most of Europe from the war. Personally, and imho, European people never recovered psychologically from the devastation. Entire generation of men was destroyed (just like WW1) as well as infrastructure and the heart of soul of Europe.
Women, in particular the German women after the war declared over, were brutally raped and oftentimes murdered by the “conquering” Americans and Russian soldiers as well as others who called for the complete annihilation of Germans after the war.
German leaders were not the only demons, but so were the leaders in GB, who were very manipulative (see james corbett’s excellent documentary that showing who was behind starting WW1 and why – called “The WWI Conspiracy – Part One: To Start A War”)
Anyways, the US was pivotal in ending the war sooner than later.
However, the effects of that war continue on in the Psyche of the nations. Now, entire generations refuse to take on the Globalists who are ruining their nations with “internationalism” and open border policies, except for some hints of awakening in France.
Just like Europe the USA people have been used by the Globalists. In all the bad stuff USA does, there is still a lot of good as well. Staying balanced is the answer.
Not to mention six fleets on the oceans.
“People are always most assured and certain about that of which they are most ignorant”, so I won’t do a Bruce Smith here because I simply don’t know enough. – How much real support can Maduro hope for from China, Russia, Turkey, Iran? I suppose that helping out prematurely could be seen as “meddling”?
I’m in Australia, and I often wonder when we will be fought over as a prize. – Lots of resources here! – There really is something disgusting about this type of economic “plunder”. Taking unfair advantage of our fellow man is a God given virtue.
And let’s not forget that it is verboten to have a functioning socialist administration anywhere in the western hemisphere, thus all the CIA coups, death squads, and dictators. Those that refuse to submit, the Fidels, Hugos, etc. are forced to function as best they can with a northern boot on their throat.
Although Simón Bolívar did much of the heavy lifting to liberate South America from the Spanish monarchy, he could not convince the new aristocracy to join their newly formed states into a republic like its northern neighbor. As the aristocracy of the New World, they had an obligation to keep up with their European counterparts. There was polo and parties, and plenty of indigenous slave labor to work their wealthy plantations and mines. Now we see the results of this folly: they are all subservient vassals of the US Empire.
Michael, you were on Wall Street and know that investing was in part gambling. So when you say “duly elected”, are you really going to tell you that it was a surprise when Maduro won re-election? Maduro used the same tactics as Putin did. Whenever an opposition leader polled more than 10%, they somehow were found to have been a criminal and put in jail. So what were the odds Putin and Maduro were not going to win re-election? They were less than 1%.
Trump’s odds of winning I think were 115 to 1 when he threw his hat in the ring. And what were the odds Obama would win a third time? He could have if he had the constitution changed, but it was less than 1%. Point is that there is a huge difference between a duly elected leader in the U.S. and one in Russia and Venezuela. Any American who thinks otherwise is a naive fool. Putin and Maduro are dictators dressed up as elected leaders.
One poster here said that we could send Venezuela food, medications, and other supplies to alleviate the suffering there. Any attempt to give goods to the Venezuelan people officially has been thwarted by the government and said goods go to the military suppressing the people. Maduro is using food as a weapon to keep his power.
If it were just American interests, then the South American countries closest to Venezuela would not have joined us in saying Maduro was not duly elected. They have tried to send in supplies into Venezuela and seen what has happened. Meanwhile, their countries have been flooded with millions of Venezuelan refugees telling tales of horror.
The United States is the world’s leading oil producer but oil is just one product we produce. Trump has mentioned using American LNG to supply Europe’s natural gas needs. At first, I thought it was a pipe dream, but LNG production is scheduled to triple in the next year.
Russia is wholeheartedly dependent on oil and gas for its economy. It cannot afford to have Venezuelan oil and gas production in the hands of American companies who would ramp up production there. If oil prices continue to fall and Russia loses its gas market in Europe, things could get very ugly for them. Many people don’t know when oil prices crashed in the late 90s, Russians were going hungry.
China’s interests are not as vital as Russia’s with Venezuela as it is getting supplied oil by the Middle East. Still, China would love to have a reliable supplier outside of that region and to be paid back its money.
The buzz on social media in Venezuela yesterday was a huge Russian plane came into an airport in Caracas. One day later, we see the Venezuelan military fully backing Maduro. I don’t think those two events are unrelated.
Yes, the U.S. has been giving Venezuela a hard time about money, but Venezuela has been stealing from the international community for some time. One reason is Venezuela has gone from having 2.3 million bpd of oil production with oil at $100 a barrel a few years ago to 1.2 million bpd of oil production with oil at $50 a barrel or so now. Furthermore, as Venezuela has disenfranchised so many oil companies because of nationalization, the leadership has no choice but to turn to gold and to Russia/China. Any company putting money into Venezuela over the last decade has come up empty.
So, yes, there is and has been American imperialism, and it has been awful. There have been horrible coups in Latin America in the past, and the countries there know full well of that evil, and THEY are not recognizing Maduro. I personally see a lot more Russian than American imperialism in Venezuela.
Great and well thought out reply. I wholeheartedly agree with you.
Joseph’s post was all over the map, but seems to be a wishy washy defense of US-sponsored regime change. He seems to be saying that yeah, we do bad things, but we’re the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper.
I’m curious how people could defend this policy of constant regime change since 1953 (globally, but the Monroe Doctrine preceded that). I look around the world and see a giant debt ponzi with ever increasing tension on many fronts. This couldn’t have possibly been the goal of all these military misadventures, unless sowing chaos was the aim all along.
“Yes, the U.S. has been giving Venezuela a hard time about money, but Venezuela has been stealing from the international community for some time.”
Pfffttttt!!!!!!
What a comment!!! Is that THE most one sided, idiotic comment EVER on the internet?
If Venezuela has been “stealing from the international community for some time”……what has the US been doing?
Can anyone say “$21 Trillion missing form the Pentagon”?
Can anyone say “unending war and financial deceipt for the past 30 years”?
Fair Dinkum!!!!
Goodnight America……turn the light off when you’re finished please.
Or at least organise in advance to have someone sweep up the Glass Car Park that your nation is likely to be turned into once the rest of the subjugated world has had enough and presses the button.
“Joseph’s post was all over the map, but seems to be a wishy washy defense of US-sponsored regime change.”
Tengen, you are falling into this pathetic trap that Chavez and Maduro laid out where the United States is responsible for all Venezuela’s ills.
Let me repeat: EVERY nation bordering or close to Venezuela wants Maduro gone. There have been five MILLION people who have fled the country going to places like Colombia, Peru, Panama, and Brazil for a better life.
This is not U.S. sponsored regime change. It is South American sponsored regime change and the U.S. was one of the last countries to sign onto said regime change.
No, I have a much simpler point than that. It’s not our business what Venezuela does. They’re no threat to us and they can sort out their own issues. I said nothing about how Venezuela got into this situation, you’re simply projecting there.
Out of curiosity, would your principle of neighborly angst carry over to other regions of the world? To places like Israel, for example?
Sorry Michael about the sad state of this commentary. You must remember that you are in USA and Americans love to cling to the “Great American Dream” of taking unfair advantage of other people.
If you conquer, you write both the history and the current news.
The gold is interesting. You need lots of gold for space travel. They have to wrap everything in gold wire to get through the kuiper belt. Maybe its time for sanctions on US depravity. The emerging powers can play that game too. Please no shooting war.
Colombia has a an ever increasing Venezuela problem.
Forget about China and Russia. If the Colombian Army moved on Venezuela, Maduro had better haul ass and abdicate power quickly. Or he will be “sucking anturios” (SA equivalent of “pushing up daisies) soon thereafter.
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If only the “selected” State Representatives would be having these Discussions.But they are in a comatose.Sometimes i like to play devils advocate to get “things” going.
wow… this is an eye-opening interview:
If this was a cybercrime case it look lots like a man in the middle attack
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-in-the-middle_attack
done before jan 2018
I was surprised by the eu reaction, where now there are two common incompatible enemies -russia and the states, and the eu and swiss speed of recognition of the con man, with possibly turkey doing reexports on behalf of the con man and maybe Maduro to europe, with the proceeds diverted to the con man while still in incognito
I consider ideology as just a popular way to sell the narrative to the taxpayer or the public, and thus being irrelevant.
Here’s a six minute video that is the best summary of what is going on in Venezuela I have seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEvHwiJWgAY