This Sunday, Spaniards will head to the polls in what is expected to be a historic election. This is because the country’s two-party system, which has dominated national politics since 1975, will likely be disrupted by the strong performance of two emergent political parties, Podemos and Ciudadanos. Although Cuidadanos has been around since 2006, Podemos was only launched last year, making its rise that much more stunning and dramatic. As we noted last fall in the post, Brand New “Podemos” Political Party Surges Ahead of Incumbents in Spain as Catalans Prepare Informal Independence Vote:
Podemos was formed less than a year ago to channel Spaniards’ disaffection with Rajoy’s People’s Party and the opposition Socialists, who between them have run the country for the past 32 years.
With corruption allegations again swirling around the PP, that discontent may be reaching tipping point: a poll for El Pais newspaper yesterday showed Podemos doubled its support in a month to a record 28 percent. In doing so, it’s overtaken both main parties, while challenging European attempts to restore political stability after years of debt crisis.
Its program demands an audit of Spain’s public debt to assess what part of it is “illegitimate” and advocates giving euro area governments control over the European Central Bank.
Now here’s some additional color on what to expect from Sunday’s general election. From Reuters:
Spain faces its most uncertain national election in 40 years on Sunday with newcomer parties poised for big gains against the traditionally dominant conservatives and socialists, complicating efforts to form a stable government.
The ballot will mark the end of the established two-party system that has held sway since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco ended in 1975, ushering in an untested and potentially volatile era of consensus politics.
Opinion polls show the governing conservative People’s Party (PP) of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will win Sunday’s vote but fall well short of an absolute majority.
Rajoy said on Wednesday he would consider a cross-party pact to ensure a stable administration over the scheduled four-year term, but all the main opposition parties have come out against joining the PP in a coalition.
But even with one in five voters still undecided, anything than a PP win would be a major surprise.
The socialists are expected to come second with Podemos (“We Can”) and a second major newcomer, liberal Ciudadanos (“Citizens”), vying for third place to become kingmakers in post-election talks.
“The emerging parties may view Sunday’s election as only the first round and will wait for a second round in which they will have a chance to switch from emerging to dominant,” said Antoni Gutierrez Rubi, who heads political consultancy firm Ideograma.
Just in case the end of a forty-year two party rule and a vibrant Catalan independence movement isn’t enough drama for you, things escalated further this past Wednesday when Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was punched in the face by a 17-year-old.
Take a look for yourself:
For more on the volatile powder keg that is Spain, see:
War on Democracy: Spain and Japan Move to Criminalize Protests
Forget the Euro…Will Spain Ultimately Break Up?
Move Over Syriza and Podemos – Revolutionary Indian Political Party Sweeps New Delhi Elections
In Liberty,
Michael Krieger
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More than the political sea change, I find it fascinating that the head of a significant Western country allows people so close to him they can clean his clock. It actually speaks well of Spanish democracy, although that will probably change now as he surrounds himself with a phalanx of guards everywhere he goes.
It sure looks like the proletariat world-wide is beginning to awaken from its long slumber. I think the slugging will become more widespread and energetic. Ultimately, TPTB are going to leave us no alternative but to vote from the rooftops.