Will Donald Trump Run as a 3rd Party Candidate?

Regular Liberty Blitzkrieg readers will be well aware of the fact that I’m a huge fan of Martin Armstrong’s work. While I disagree with him on several key topics, including Bitcoin, his long-term macro forecasting record has no equal. One of his key forecasts for many years now is that 2015.75, or September 30/October 1, will represent a key negative inflection point, i.e., a downturn in his “economic confidence model.” One of his other key forecasts, has been that the 2016 Presidential election will usher in significant 3rd party activity.

When I heard him make this claim a couple of years ago, it seemed pretty far fetched. There didn’t seem to be anyone on the scene with the resources and support to launch a real 3rd party push. That is, until Donald Trump exploded onto the scene. While Trump has been running in the Republican primary, it seems pretty clear that the GOP establishment wants nothing to do with him. As such, even Trump himself has come out in recent days hinting at a potential independent run.

We learn from the Hill that:

NEW YORK — Donald Trump says the chances that he will launch a third-party White House run will “absolutely” increase if the Republican National Committee is unfair to him during the 2016 primary season.

“The RNC has not been supportive. They were always supportive when I was a contributor. I was their fair-haired boy,” the business mogul told The Hill in a 40-minute interview from his Manhattan office at Trump Tower on Wednesday. “The RNC has been, I think, very foolish.”

Pressed on whether he would run as a third-party candidate if he fails to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump said that “so many people want me to, if I don’t win.”

“I’ll have to see how I’m being treated by the Republicans,” Trump said. “Absolutely, if they’re not fair, that would be a factor.”

While unrelated to this piece, I did think his comments on Hillary were spot on:

He said that Sanders is a sort of “duplicate” of liberal favorite Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who he said has pushed Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner for 2016, to the left.

“She’s had a huge impact on Clinton,” Trump said. “Hillary is going way left, and I sort of laugh because I know Hillary very well. … The interesting part about Hillary is that her donors are all the hedge fund guys and the business guys and the real estate guys. And they’re all saying, ‘Do you think she means it?’ And I say, ‘Of course she doesn’t mean it — you know her.’ ”

If Armstrong’s model is correct, there’s a pretty good chance that Trump will run as a third party candidate. Personally, I don’t like Trump at all, and I think he’s pretty much a demagogue-in-training. Nevertheless, if he does launch a third party run, I think it will have very significant repercussions for politics in America in 2016 and beyond. None of them particularly good.

First of all, Trump running in 2016 as an independent will certainly ensure a Hillary victory. Not that Jeb Bush would be any better, but Clinton would be a lock at that point. More importantly, the economy is likely to crater between 2016-2020, so whoever is elected is likely to be a one-term President. Unfortunately, this sets up Trump to potentially win in 2020. Think I’m crazy? I hope you’re right, because such an outcome means the American public’s political reaction to crisis would be to choose an wannabe strongman. One who places very little value on individual freedom and liberty, if any at all.

Moreover, a Trump third party campaign might be just enough of a bread and circus spectacle to keep the unwashed masses amused and overly engaged in this rigged system longer than they should. Basically, it would amount to another epic distraction and the media will eat it up.

For related articles, see:

Donald Trump the Demagogue

You’re Fired – Trump Campaign Tweets Photo of Trump’s Head Next to Nazi Soldiers

Meet the Immigrants Building Trump’s International Hotel in Washington D.C.

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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