Another Stupid War

All I wanted to do this week was work on part 2 of my localism series, but circumstances quickly got the best of me. The assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani was an event of such historical significance, I feel obligated to detail my thoughts on what it means and how things unfold from here, especially given how much of a role geopolitics and questions of empire have played in my writings.

First off, we need to understand the U.S. is now at war with Iran. It’s an undeclared, insane and unconstitutional war, but it is war nonetheless. There is no world in which one government intentionally assassinates the top general of another government and that not be warfare. You can argue the U.S. and Iran were already engaged in low-level proxy wars, and that’s a fair assessment, but you can’t say we aren’t currently in a far more serious a state of war. We are.

Soleimani was not only a powerful general, he was a popular figure within Iran. Unlike other blows the U.S. and Iran have inflicted upon one another, this cannot be walked back. There’s no deescalation from here, only escalation. Even if you want to pretend this didn’t happen and turn back the clock, it’s impossible. This is a major event of historical proportions and should be seen as such. Everything has been turned up a notch.

Before discussing what happens next and the big picture implications, it’s worth pointing out the incredible number of blatant lies and overall clownishness that emerged from U.S. officials in the assassination’s aftermath. It started with claims from Trump that Soleimani was plotting imminent attacks on Americans and was caught in the act. Mass media did its job and uncritically parroted this line, which was quickly exposed as a complete falsehood.

It’s incredibly telling that CNN would swallow this fact-free claim with total credulity within weeks of discovering the extent of the lies told about Syrian chemical attacks and the Afghanistan war. Meanwhile, when a reporter asked a state department official for some clarification on what sorts of attacks were imminent, this is what transpired.

Naturally, we learned soon after from the Iraqi PM himself that Soleimani was in Iraq as part of a diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions. In other words, he was apparently lured to Baghdad under false pretenses so he’d be a sitting duck for a U.S. strike. Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

As you’d expect, some of the most ridiculous propaganda came from Mike Pompeo, a man who genuinely loves deception and considers it his craft.. For example:

Then there’s what actually happened.

Moving on to the really big question: what does this assassination mean for the future role of the U.S. in the Middle East and American global hegemony generally? A few important things have already occurred. For starters, the Iraqi parliament passed a resolution calling for U.S. troops to leave. Even more important are the comments and actions of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Unmentioned in the above tweet, but extremely significant, is the fact al-Sadr has been a vocal critic of both the American and Iranian presence in Iraq. He doesn’t want either country meddling in the affairs of Iraqis, but the Soleimani assassination clearly pushed him to focus on the U.S. presence. This is a very big deal and ensures Iraq will be far more dangerous for U.S. troops than it already was. 

Going forward, Iran’s response will be influenced to a great degree by what’s already transpired. There are three things worth noting. First, although many Trump supporters are cheering the assassination, Americans are certainly nowhere near united on this, with many including myself viewing it as a gigantic strategic blunder. Second, it ratcheted up anti-American sentiment in Iraq to a huge degree without Iran having to do anything, as highlighted above. Third, hardliners within Iran have been given an enormous gift. With one drone strike, the situation went from grumblings and protests on the ground to a scene where any sort of dissent in the air has been extinguished for the time being.

Iranian leadership will see these developments as important victories in their own right and will likely craft a response taking stock of this much improved position. This means a total focus on making the experience of American troops in the region untenable, which will be far easier to achieve now.

If that’s right, you can expect less shock and awe in the near-term, and more consolidation of the various parties that were on the fence but have since shifted to a more anti-American stance following Soleimani’s death. Iran will start with the easy pickings, which consists of consolidating its stronger position in Iraq and making dissidents feel shameful at home. That said, Iran will have to publicly respond with some sort of a counterattack, but that event will be carefully considered with Iran’s primary objective in mind — getting U.S. troops out of the region.

This means no attacks on U.S. or European soil, and no attacks targeting civilians either. Such a move would be as strategically counterproductive as Assad gassing Syrian cities after he was winning the war (which is why many of us doubted the narrative) since it would merely inflame American public opinion and give an excuse to attack Iran in Iran. There is no way Iranian leadership is that stupid, so any such attack must be treated with the utmost skepticism.

It’s impossible to know exactly what will happen in the short-term, but in the much bigger picture I have a strong view of what this means. The assassination of Soleimani kicks off the beginning of the final chapter in the decline of U.S. imperial dominance. It will likely play out over the course of the first part of this decade (2020-2025), and by the time it’s over it’ll be undeniable that the U.S. is no longer the global hegemon it once was. The world at that stage will be unmistakably multi-polar.

The signs are everywhere.

This is not a time for despair, as there can be a huge silver lining to all of this. A singular focus on imperial hegemony has been terrible for most Americans. It has made us weak, it has destroyed the middle class, and it has entrenched a small subset of sociopaths into positions of total, unaccountable power.

The energy and spirit of the American people have been pushed aside and smothered so a bunch of defense contractors, politicians and finance criminals can play a game of RISK at the public’s expense. The transition is likely to be quite traumatic and fraught with danger, but empire has been a curse and has hollowed out the country. Shaking off empire at least gives us a shot at a revival.

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– Michael Krieger

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22 thoughts on “Another Stupid War”

  1. The N. Korean people also mourned the death of the supreme leader by the millions. Its better to mourn than die. The Iranian people are prisoners in their own country. If the US killed the leadership the people would thank us. I bet other terrorists will be more careful knowing we will kill them. Be strong not weak.

    Reply
    • Soleimani’s crime was being too effective in fighting ISIS. That’s what made him a “terrorist”.

      Amusing to see people using MSM talking points to support Trump’s warmongering. Oh, the irony.

    • Give us the proof of your claim! Americans are definitely prisoners in their own country except for the 1 percent. You are very very weak. This was a war crime and nothing less.

  2. Have noticed a massive uptick of trolls on sites like ZH, people unconditionally supporting war with Iran. They’ve come out of the woodwork to a suspicious extent.

    It takes serious mental gymnastics for the MAGA crowd to support this. We’ve wandered far from the “end the wars” stance of 2016, to not only continuing the old wars but starting a huge new one. If Trump fans wanted this, why not vote for Jeb or Rubio (or even Hillary) instead? They could have had this war at least a year or two ago!

    Too bad McCain didn’t live long enough to see this, he and Trump would have buried the hatchet and become great friends and allies.

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  3. Krieger’s analysis seems spot on at both the 2D geo political level and the much larger scale 3D NWO level of operations.

    This was an extraordinary dirty hit in very bad faith as Iraq and the USA were the two sponsors of a peace feeler conference between Iran and the Sauds set to take place in Iraq. Not that the Iranians are incapable of treachery in this overt and covert war. Sueleimani will be missed in the short run but in the longer making about as much difference as pulling your hand out of a bucket of water. The term for this propaganda stunt is a pyrrhic victory. The back lash as Krieger points out is to come in the next few years. This is as it has been ordained by the ‘pyramid cap.’ The old Anglo-American world order, as used by the old ‘cap’ for the last three and a half centuries in controlling most of the world is now going to be ended as the next multi polar NWO makes much better use of new NWO narratives. How do I know this? Because the ‘pyramid cap’ controls both and can at its choosing and timing advance one over the other while most of the world can’t see the moves for the misdirection, obfuscation and propaganda narratives the geo political provides. There are some mighty big grins on the faces of those plotting the next paradigm with this mafia style hit having taken place. One wonders if those who gave the orders for this hit are now considering what utter dupes they were made to be?

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  4. [1] Not only is the excuse that Soleimani was plotting major actions against US interests untrue, it doesn’t make sense even if it were. How would killing one guy thwart all this plotting he’s been up to? Are we supposed to believe only Gen Miller and Soleimani himself were privy to such plans?

    [2] What the MSM will not ask themselves: How and Why is this guy such an inspiration and super-star to millions across the mid-East, even to Arab Christians?

    [3] The Generals and contractors are not engaged in a game of Risk, but in the great game of world domination. Not the generals and other venal bit players, but the American foreign policy establishment. Obsessed with with the Gulf, oil and energy. They are convinced that their control of the oil spigot is where their power comes from. WW2 was a war for oil, certainly for Japan (which was cut off from oil and went to Manchuria and Indonesia to get it), but also for Germany (Urals, Azerbaijan, Romania). Control of the oil spigot not only allows them to control other nations directly (just look at all the foment over Russian gas), but the petrodollar is in fact the gold in today’s financial system. Americans need the petrodollar to keep current levels of spending (and military expenditures), and their control of dollar securities (virtually all fx, bond, derivatives, and stocks are cleared via New York) and dollar transactions (sanctions, Swift). Oil is what backs global currency, of which the dollar is the base currency.

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  5. why doesn’t someone come out and say all this is done for the Greater Glory of Israel? trump is satanyahu’s sock puppet. iran is standing in the way of the expansion of the israeli empire.

    Reply
  6. To kill…up close….you have to see only enemies…
    To kill at a distance….from the vantage point of power… …..you must be cynical ….& have counted the carnage of human history & become inured to it. Albright & HRC & Bill C & Tony Blair fall in that category…

    The consequences of an acute narcissist as POTUS w AUMF at his disposal & blowing up tensions between Iraq & Israel… are huge..

    Trump misrepresents reality far more than most..and he has built his alt right alliances inside the US ….far more than most eatimate. ..

    He …as an alleged right libertarian …has blown up the deficit to absurd proportions…. the repercussions of which confound even Keynesians like R Reich, Krugmann, Piketty…

    He..as others ..continue to ignore global warming at the peril of the planet & her peoples…

    HRC would have also ignored climate change & international trade agreements…access to basic health care ..etc..were it not for the re booted left populist/social democrat Sanders… (Even Steyer, solar bullionaire.. ignores health access while acknowledging weakly…health care as a “human right..”

    The health & weather volaitity elements of climate change alone… have led reaponsible climate scisntists to ….talk about “tipping points..,” which we see in …massive pieces of Greenland, and both the Artic & Anartica… ..the huge fires engulfing Australia… the continued burning of pastoral lands in parts of Mesopatamia & the Arabian Peninsula, including Yemen… which must import 90% of its food to attempt…. to insure …. any (horrible) minimal survival…

    The utter escaltion of military tensions by Teump ordering the killing & then misrepresenting ….what Suliemon was doing and has been engages in vs ISIS… are monumental.

    He was even advised AGAINST such action by Pentagon advisors..

    NATO military leadership is likely to NOT “follow..” in ..escalating tensions…vs Iran (strenthening Bibi Bibi chavaunism ..& Saudi royal (waining)….influence….
    Aside from & in addition to the
    …. popular calls for functioning govt inside Lebanon (constraining even Hezbollah)….
    ….the conflicting claims & cross currents inside Syria…
    ….the sacrifice of Kurdish aspirations by US agreements w Erdogan…

    …..the death toll….is not reducible to US or Israeli or.Saudi interests, but … TRUMP targeted assassination will have many repercussions..l
    ….including resistance to war & pre emptive .. unilateral efforts…

    Irsnians know the US attacked an honored hero
    (& they may…know he was .. a transnational military actor who assisted Assad in his.earl post external developemnt internal repression…maybe).
    But their muliti faceted.democratic aspirations.. have not evaporated… nor will external military activity assist them…

    Note: Putin & RSF are very smart. China is very smart (but its external development & trade dynamics are quite “problematic” …& hegemonic & “disinterested” internal “human rights” issues inside Mynamar, Kampuchea, Pakistan….

    …..Trump drive to war ….push back…in streets & inside halls of coucils, state legislaturea, your Congressional reps, both House & Senate.

    The assassination was “deflection,” AND… extremely dangerous…

    AUMF needs to be rescinded.
    War Powers Act …back to post VN..
    Redefine “national security..”
    Support & push Sanders…

    Reply
  7. I side with Nicky Haley . She spoke about this guy’s war mongering 2 yrs ago at the UN . When you run around saying your going to “ wipe Israel of the map “ , and your within a couple of years from being a nuclear power !!! Bad things are going to happen.
    To be frank, I suspect the administration took the initiative knowing this would be the result , knowing they will retaliate, then they can finally have the reason there looking for to kiss the “Fordow nuclear enrichment facility “ goodbye!!

    Reply
    • If you side with that genocidal lunatic, you won’t find much agreement here. Also think Albright’s assessment that all those dead Iraqi children “were worth it”? Also support the Iraq WMD myth, and the “Kuwaiti babies thrown from incubators” proven lie? Also believe MH17 was brought down by any BUK missile (it was a Ukie warplane, they found the pilot, he confessed).

      Remember the Maine, the Lusitania, Gulf of Tonkin, Pearl Harbor being “unexpected”… s many lies, too little time.

  8. ‘Unlike other blows the U.S. and Iran have inflicted upon one another….’

    Uhhhh. Forgive me. What has Iran ‘inflicted’ on the US. Or anyone, for that matter?

    ~ Occams

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  9. you’re confused mike. you wrote a whole long annoying piece about one word ‘escalation’. you admit there already has been a war, neocons have arranged for a world wide campaign of extending american interests wherever they can.

    trump simply escalated a bit, on iraqi soil. so what happens now? saving face and de-escalation or more escalation?
    i’m willing to bet saving face. trump just bought u.s. time most likely. iran’s ability to accelerate their nuclear program has probably slowed a bit as a result of solameinis assasination. possibly this is incorrect. And if the opposite is true and Iran in fact is able to accelerate their march to nuclear weapons and gets them, then this assasination has accelerated the likelihood of conflict.

    nuclear proliferation, and the perception of this proliferation is very much one of the anchors to this u.s. lead conflicts. The u.s. doesn’t want iran getting the bomb. nor does israel. without question mossad helped provide at least some information to the u.s. on the assasination. considering they did this and probably approved of the assasination by the u.s. —it’s likely it was beneficial. this was no accident. the assination was a net win in a war. the war is ongoing. and your posture is that the u.s. ‘SHOULD’ Stop being and imperium and simply change all of its policies and become a different octopus.

    well , that’s not gonna happen. you can advocate a political position from your armchair, or you can assess reality as it is. this hit on a general was not a total surprise, if anything it’s surprising such a careful spymaster exposed himself so easily to assasination. At the very least , He knew the israeli’s wanted to kill him. Iran miscalculated that they controlled iraq and the u.s .wouldn’t retaliate. that was a serious miscalculation unless you think iran believes it’s better of with an assasinated general than without him. Yet, for me, this perspective is hard to take seriously .

    the simply reality is Iran has been set back very dearly as they seem to have a very top heavy dependence on this general’s experience and his network and his methods. Without him, the rest of the roundtable will be in disarray for months. and MONTHS is a long long time when you’re at war.

    Reply
    • You can call my piece annoying, you can disagree with it all you want. Meaningless. The only thing that matters is after history plays out in the future, whether my assessment proved prescient or not.

    • Consider this possibility:
      Israel goes to Trump and says “we’ve got this guy’s when and where down to the minute and we’re gonna hit him.
      We are asking for your help and blessing, not your permission… too juicy to pass up. We think a US drone strike would be better than an Israeli air strike for a thousand reasons. Your call, our air strike goes zero-hour at Zulu 1600.”

      Now, if you’re Trump, what do you do?

  10. (Pompeo’s claim that Soleimani was an “Imminent threat” is real whopper.) – Check.

    (MSM is the entertainment division of the MIC.) – Check.

    Corollary: (The MIC is Wall Street’s muscle.) – Check.

    (We are watching the US empire attempt world domination.) – Check.

    (Iran has frustrated Israel’s expansionist goals.) – Check.

    “This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.” – Pentagon memo provided to General Wesley Clark (2007)

    The Persians are an ancient culture that has occupied the region from millennia. They are the big fish in the region, which is why they were listed last on the Wesley Clark’s memo. The strategy we’ve seen play out is to surround them and lay siege, using many forms of modern aggression. And all the while NATO and the MSM providing cover for every aggression, and feeding the western public a steady stream of war propaganda lies.

    The best Iran can do right now is to coordinate with other multi-polar actors in the region and patiently wait for the US’s rotting carcass to fall to it’s knees. Especially, no sudden moves that will give the sick beast a pretext to unleash it’s fury.

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  11. The next step is to accede to the Iraqi parliaments wishes and withdraw from Iraq.

    Tucker Carlson is pushing for that hard, and Trump pays attention to Tucker.

    But my guess is that Trump will push the Iraqi’s to make some sort of “deal” to pay for the billion dollar air base the US built in order to save face before a complete withdrawal.

    The entire Iran is the root of all evil schtick is primarily driven by the Israeli and Saudi oligarchs. Especially the Rothschild’s. Which also means the Rockefeller’s.

    Reply
  12. If left unchecked, Iran would take over Iraq and dominate the region, dictating terms for the world’s access to Middle Eastern oil.
    That is a very simple fact.

    In the 21st Century, they operate a friggin’ THEOCRACY with a Supreme Leader as head of its WARRIOR religion. Theocracies are not generally known for encouraging liberal thought or diplomatic flexibility and an Islamic theocracy, even less so. It’s not as if the Koran is real big on live and let live…. A nuclear-armed Iran has been anathema to every administration since 1980, and for damn good reason.

    But even if Iran just chilled all the way out, the Middle East is simply incapable of sustained peace because the Sunni/Shiite schism is not something that can be mediated, negotiated or moderated, much less managed and “Peace in the Middle East” is pure naivete… and that’s before you enter Israel into the equation, whose destruction is the only thing that Sunnis and Shiites agree on.

    We haven’t had formal diplomatic relations with Iran since 1980 and I think we can all agree we’ve been in a proxy war of fluctuating intensity with Iran since that time, which is really an extension of the Cold War…

    The “lies” that come out of the governmental megaphone justifying this particular operation are, as always, obvious and laughable bullshit… but, honestly, do you expect something different?… No… so why get worked up?

    This is just the next battle in an ongoing war… and a battle that, it seems, we won, if anyone can win these things.

    And I’ve got news for everyone… regardless of how bad you think the US is, or Trump is, or Republicans are, or Democrats are, the fact is, if you’re legally here, you’re on the team… even if you don’t think so or claim to be on no team, or hate being on the team, you’re still on the team… not because I say so, or because the US says so… it’s because the rest of the world is on their teams and that’s the way it is.

    So, let’s all bring it in for the Big Win!!!!

    Reply
    • I don’t think you intended to write propaganda there, but that last bit about being on the same team is the sort of piffle neocons and other warmongers depend on. Easily avoidable war crimes are okay because we’re all in this together!

      The HUGE problem with this way of thinking is that our society is built on staggering debt and money printing. When this idiotic system finally blows up in our faces, it won’t be Iranians or other foreigners that we have to worry about, we’ll have our hands full with each other. When necessities like food and water are in short supply and tensions run high, go ahead and tell people we’re all on the same team. Let me know how that goes!

      Also not sure why you’re so worried about theocracy. You don’t think a zealot like Pompeo is interested in bringing about the rapture? We have loads of people like that here, plus our only friends in the world are Likudniks in Israel and Saudi Wahhabis. Forget Iranian crazies, we’re already more than stocked up here.

    • “A nuclear-armed Iran has been anathema to every administration since 1980, and for damn good reason.”

      What is the “damn good reason” that allows Pakistan to have nuclear weapons, but not Iran?

    • I’m sorry, did I somehow insinuate that a nuclear-armed Pakistan is a good thing?
      But since you bring it up, here are my thoughts:
      First and foremost, taking nuclear weapons from a nuclear state is definitely NOT possible whereas preventing the creation of a new nuclear state MAY be possible, at least for a time. So, all existing nuclear states are here to stay, absent a nuclear exchange.
      Second, a nuclear Pakistan does check the expansionist ambitions of a nuclear India, along with Iran and Russia and China. There is certainly a very concerning level of potential volatility between Pakistan and India that has, thus far and improbably, not resulted in a nuclear exchange, but may in the future.
      Third, while the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is heavily influenced by Islam (at times dominated by the clerics), its government is secular in construct.
      Iran, on the contrary, is a true theocratic dictatorship (a de facto Caliphate) with the Supreme Leader as its head of state and top political & religious figure. He sits above all elected officials, in both name and practice, with no effective means of his removal, censure or restriction, absent a military putsch. This is clearly confirmed by the fact that there have been only 2 Supreme Leaders since inception in 1979. The “electors” of the Supreme Leader must, effectively, be vetted and endorsed BY the Supreme Leader and the Supreme Leader appoints all top military officials. Fucking lunacy, unless Jesus or The Buddha held the position.

      All of that aside, I certainly understand Iran’s desire to possess nukes and I respect their reasons. And I could easily argue their claim to having the right to possess them. Who are we to deny another nation the means of self-defense?
      Regardless, I would do everything in my power to prevent their ascension into the nuclear club simply because, well, fuck them. Anyone who allows one guy to run the whole show, unopposed, based on their medieval traditions are obviously a nation of fucking delusional retards, unfit to have such power.

      Do you disagree?
      Are you at peace with the idea of a nuclear Iran?
      Do you believe a nuclear Iran is no more dangerous than a nuclear Unites States or a nuclear China?
      And no fair invoking a nuclear Israel 😉

  13. I love the term “war crime”.
    It’s not only redundant, it’s pusillanimous.
    To paraphrase “Apocalypse Now!”, you’re talking handing out speeding tickets at the Indy 500.
    I’m not worried about the economic world ending, nor should you be. That’s just doom porn.
    Sure, the math is all wrong, but it ain’t changing.
    When it blows up, fuck it, we’ll deal with it then, just like everyone since the history of civilization has done.
    All just part of the game, friend.
    In the meantime, act as if it’s all good. Just because the river may seem unnavigable, you still have to paddle cuz that’s the river and you’re on it, with your wife and kids and all her knickknacks and the kids’ teddy bears and xboxes and shit.
    We live in amazing times, my friend! Dig it!
    Whining about the way “things oughta be” is just plain-ole turtlenecked clove-smoking faggotry, in the most non-gayslur use of the term.
    Great in a coffee shop, shit in the bush.
    Real men team up and paddle their asses off.
    FYI, the tail end of my previous post is from Full Metal Jacket.

    Oh, and I’m not a neocon. I’m a historian.
    Bedtime! Market opens in 6 hours.
    That would be the stock market, where men of worth and means dally, in spite of its blatant fuckery.

    Reply

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