As President Trump has said many times, we rebuilt China over the past 25 years. No truer words were spoken, but those days are over.
The United States now recognizes China as a strategic and economic rival.
– Vice President Mike Pence during a speech last week at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
The truth is that China is a strategic competitor at best that uses coercion and corruption as its tools of statecraft. (Applause.)
We’ve reconvened “the Quad” – the security talks between Japan, Australia, India and the Untied States that had been dormant for nine years. This will prove very important in the efforts ahead, ensuring that China retains only its proper place in the world.
– Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a speech last week to the Heritage Foundation
I don’t take the U.S.-China trade war seriously, because I don’t expect a transformative deal to come of it. Specifically, I see the current trade charade as little more than a warmup to a far more serious, unpredictable and dangerous conflict between the U.S. and China in the years ahead.
Last December, in a piece titled Is U.S. Geopolitical Strategy Experiencing a Monumental Shift?, I explained how the U.S. was repositioning its foreign policy to focus on China, and how this would set off a long-lasting and enormously consequential feud between the dominant empire and the emerging power. The post concluded with the following thought:
I’ve now seen enough to seriously consider that we may be entering an entirely new geopolitical environment dominated by vastly increased tensions between the U.S. and China. If so, it will likely last a lot longer than you think as leaders in both China in the U.S. will be looking for a scapegoat as their crony, financialized economies struggle under unpayable debt and unimaginable levels of corruption.
It’s been close to a year since that was published, and I’m now more convinced than ever what we’re witnessing with the trade war is nothing more than insincere negotiations with virtually zero chance of resulting in a major deal that fundamentally restructures the U.S.-China relationship. Despite the endless rounds of talks and optimistic tweets from Trump, absolutely nothing has been accomplished. Let me explain what I think’s really going on.
First, I think Trump and his administration genuinely mean it when it comes to their desire to get China under control and stymie its geopolitical and economic rise. This has been clear from the very beginning, and continues to be expressed by top administration officials including by Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo in a set of speeches last week (here and here), which I encourage everyone to analyze independently.
In his speech, Pence harshly attacked virtually every aspect of Chinese society and referred to it an “authoritarian regime” on multiple occasions. This isn’t the sort of language U.S. officials tend to use when a breakthrough deal with a foreign nation is imminent, it’s the sort of language U.S. officials use when the country is at war, about to be at war, or is working on a regime change operation.
If that’s the case, why do both China and the U.S. continue to play pretend when it comes to the trade war? I think there are several reasons. Let’s begin by examining what Trump’s trying to achieve. I think he went into the trade war thinking that by taking an unexpectedly aggressive approach he could inflict enough pain on China’s economy to force them into the sort of historic and transformative deal he had in mind, but this did not pan out. I believe Trump now recognizes such a deal will not happen, but he continues to fake it. This isn’t because his fundamental strategic objectives changed, it’s because he’s consumed with concerns around reelection. As such, he’s decided to pretend things are going well regarding a trade deal he knows isn’t coming to keep the stock market elevated. Trump is absolutely obsessed with the U.S. equity market and believes keeping it elevated is key to his reelection. Thus, he’s intentionally keeping hope alive when there’s no real reason to be hopeful.
As I noted a couple of weeks ago:
No idea if Trump can execute this, but here's what I think he's trying to accomplish.
Announce some pointless deal and then claim something bigger is coming. Talk about this bigger deal until election, but there will be no big deal.
Once reelected go fire and brimstone on China.— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) October 11, 2019
Subsequent days offered additional evidence for this perspective as Trump proclaimed the trade deal would be separated into phases, with phase one pretty much ready to go. Naturally, if you look into what’s expected to be accomplished in “phase one,” it’s a complete joke.
China buying food it needs is not a trade deal ya morons. https://t.co/F1eg4tLdtk
— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) October 24, 2019
As noted in the Bloomberg article, it appears phase one will amount to a complete zero from the U.S. perspective. We learn:
China aims to buy at least $20 billion of agricultural products in a year if it signs a partial trade deal with the U.S., and would consider boosting purchases further in future rounds of talks, people familiar with the matter said.
That would take China’s imports of U.S. farm goods back to around 2017 levels, before Trump began a tit-for-tat tariff feud with Beijing. In the second year of a potential final deal, purchases could rise to $40 billion to $50 billion. But that would depend on Trump removing remaining punitive tariffs, said the people, who asked not to be named because talks are private.
If this is accurate, it accomplishes absolutely nothing. It simply brings Chinese purchases back to where they were before. Even if they agree to much higher purchases, this was never about China buying more pigs and soybeans, it was about fundamentally restructuring the U.S.-China relationship, and there’s no evidence whatsoever this is going to happen. Trump is dragging this out and pretending it’s going well in order to keep the stock market at record levels to help his reelection odds. Other more significant trade phases will be discussed ad nauseam for the next twelve months, but no truly transformative deal will occur. Trump knows this and so does China.
If I’m right and China’s leadership understands the sort of deal the Trump administration demands will never happen, why are they willing to play along with Trump’s trade song and dance? I think the primary motivation lies in China’s hope Trump can be removed from office, either via impeachment or in the 2020 election. Chinese leadership probably thinks escalating the situation could end up helping Trump. Though a fall in equity markets and U.S. economic activity wouldn’t be good for Trump, if he’s able to blame it on China’s unwillingness to compromise it could actually help his reelection prospects. I think the Chinese understand this and don’t want to offer Trump the scapegoat he desires. They figure the U.S. economy and markets could very well stumble on their own over the next twelve months, and they want the U.S. populace to blame Trump instead of China.
To summarize, I think Trump went into the trade war thinking he could cause such a massive headache for China it would swiftly agree to major concessions. When this didn’t happen, Trump figured he couldn’t safely escalate into a more aggressive confrontation without torching his reelection prospects, so he decided to drag out this ridiculous spectacle to prop up the stock market into November 2020. From its perspective, China doesn’t want to give Trump the scapegoat he desires should the economy and stock market tank before the election. Chinese leadership probably thinks there’s a reasonable chance Trump’s days are numbered and they might get a China softie like Biden in the White House. As such, both the Trump administration and China both appear to have their own distinct incentives for pretending that the trade war negotiations are going well, when in fact both sides know they are not.
If I’m correct, there’s no point in spending much time thinking about the trade war. It’s just a spectacle, a sideshow and a total circus at this point. Rather, it’s much more important to think about where this is all headed over the next several years, and on that front I think the conflict will get far more severe.
Irrespective of whatever nonsense is or is not announced tomorrow, I’d say there’s around a 5% chance U.S.-China relations improve substantially over the next 2-3 years.
It’s just not going to happen.— Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) October 11, 2019
If Trump wins in 2020, I expect he’ll become more aggressive with China than almost anyone can imagine. Without having to think about reelection, Trump will focus on his legacy and he’ll see reorienting the U.S.-Chinese relationship as the most historically significant achievement he can accomplish. At that point, China will have have no choice but to face the reality of another four years of Trump, and it’ll likewise stop pretending things are going well, which will cause the situation to deteriorate fast.
The path is a bit less clear should Trump lose reelection, though a major U.S.-China conflict remains in the cards early next decade regardless for a couple of reasons. First, the global economy is in fact on the verge of systemic failure due to it being structurally little more than a massive fraud scheme of debt, corruption and rent-seeking. When this failure truly manifests globally, both Chinese and U.S. leadership will desire a conflict in order to distract from internal problems. Chinese elites won’t want the Chinese people to blame them, and U.S. elites won’t want to be blamed either. As such, an external enemy works for politicians and oligarchs in both countries. It’s the same as it ever was. Trump’s just escalating and bringing forward a collision that’s increasingly likely to unfold irrespective of who resides in the oval office.
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I agree with the trade war being a complete circus but I’m not agreeing with the rest of the analysis, such as “if Trump wins, the X will happen”
It makes no difference if Trump wins the election or not.
US foreign policy toward China is not set by Republicans or Democrats.
What will be will be.
Generally speaking, I agree with you. Which is why in my last paragraph I conclude this conflict is coming irrespective of who resides in the White House.
On the 2D board this conflict between supposed sovereign nation states, there are none, is for the public’s consumption. Taking a step to the next reality level and we see the interconnectiveness of the pyramid cap where the US Secretary of Transportation’s sister sits on the BOD of the PBOC. Where elites are invested in each pother’s bailiwick and the whole pyramidal structure resembles one large interwoven consortium advancing its own agenda via all manner of conflict or other subterfuge.. While China is certainly fast becoming a locked down Technocracy the west is following in the same NWO steps as quickly as the public can be brought along.
“The state exists to enforce the dominance of elites, all the rest is propaganda, misdirection, obfuscation [or terrorism up to and including total war.]”
Agree with the fundamental premise of BRF – The Oligarchy is Global – We cripple our understanding of the sophistication of this network. We need an independent source, for a “Global Analysis” of the Elite network – Follow Global linkages to Capital, Patents, Money Flows, Banking, Family Connections, ;Board Seates, Media Ownership…Etc. This is 4-D Chess, being played by the masters
It seems you and I are the only ones here that see that Rosneft and Exxon are in utero twins or that the owners of the BIS are now conducting their opus. While at lower levels there will be bickering about which corporate entity gets a lion share here or there in the end thy all serve a master plan and master ideology.
It appears to me that China developed *itself* over the past 25 years and that the USA has done not much more than compete with the entire world which is precisely why that empire is falling.
Are you familiar with the writings of Anthony Sutton and the on going technology transfers that took place to the Soviet Union from the west? The exact same scenario has taken place with China. Why was Hitler defeated by the allies, after much profiteering of course, when in the beginning the corporate west built the 3rd Reich? What was Hitler’s and the 3rd Reich’s betrayal?
As for China building infrastructure ( as an IMF clone) while the USA led west drops bombs, what we are seeing are two sides of the same coin. One tearing down what must be rebuilt….strings attached but with different names for the same modus operandi. All must be standardized so that inventory and control can be manifest. All law and enforcement, all financing, all land, water, minerals, animals, plants, energy, means of production, construction, information, education, human habitation and all humans on this planet standardized. This is what the term ‘globalism’ represents in toto.
BRF your conspiracy theory (and I don’t mean that derogatorily … I believe 9/11 was an inside job and so on) is compelling, but implausible. If the east and west were in collusion towards NWO, the CIA/NED would have no need for manufacturing dissent in Hong Kong and the massive false propaganda campaign against China would not exist.
If it is as you say, then Russia-phobia, i.e. McCarthyism 2.0 may/should be called off by the powers that be, in order to get Russia on the side of the US and not to push them into the arms of the Chinese, as has been happening.
The only thing everyone has not talked about is that China holds the US debt. They could just dump all of it on the open market and quit using the DOLLAR reserve for trade. The NY Elites own the markets as we see today and those Elites wont let that happen. But as we sell more debt to our overseas partners it is a matter of time before they all call in those notes. Then we will see what cards fall first. Until the day I don’t see the stamp, ‘Made In China’ I don’t believe anything around the trade deal. It is just as bad as the BREXIT. I believe as you said something BIGGER is on the horizon. As to what that is they keep that classified for their own $$$ benefit. The people we should be watching and writing more about is the ONES that control the MONEY….Central Banks(IMF).
Forward thinking US manufacturers are moving to India from China. On that basis, policy is working.
“The truth is that China is a strategic competitor at best that uses coercion and corruption as its tools of statecraft”
Just like the USA. America’s top banks fined hundreds of millions to billions of dollars for Fraud, Corruption & Manipulation of the Financial Markets after 2008 Financial Collapse.
Nobody Goes to Jail – FED Refuses to be Audited.
America’s Filthy House of Cards is Burning Down – While your politicians try & start wars everywhere & badmouth other nations.
Clean Up Your Own Filthy House First – Before pointing the finger at other Nation’s Filthy Houses.
After a well presented argument about the Trade Wars, why would you bring up a trivial issue about some Faggot?
I vote that Washington D.C. Beijing, Moscow, etc. do us all a favor and strategically nuke themselves, all those in favor raise their hands.
From everything I’m hearing, China is playing for keeps on the propaganda front. They have whipped the PRC population into a frenzy, almost like the US after 9/11. It remains to be seen if that’s a smart move.
It makes sense to get people fired up in the case of imminent military conflict (seems very unlikely) or in a public relations war (far more likely). The average PRC person is irate at Hong Kong protestors and sees nothing wrong with the concentration camps housing the Uighurs in Xinjiang.
Of course, neither the US or PRC governments are “good guys” in this fight and both populations have proven to be gullible, but this strategy of hyping conflict is dangerous. Most news networks around the world stoke people into anger continuously and it’s bound to have nasty side effects over time.
If central bankers lose control eventually and the economy is allowed to crash like it should, both the US and PRC would devolve into internal conflict and both countries would break into pieces. If the bankers keep control and successfully direct public anger elsewhere, any number of things could happen. The old Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times” has come true for all of us.
As for Hong Kong, mainland Chinese have every right to be irate at CIA/NED manufactured dissent and the ultra-violent faction of protesters who are actually terrorists.
Hmm my first reply appears to have not gone through so here goes again:
Tengen, you’re assuming that Western propaganda re: Xinjiang is factual?
For starters, here are a couple articles worth reading:
https://thegrayzone.com/2018/08/23/un-did-not-report-china-internment-camps-uighur-muslims/
https://worldaffairs.blog/2019/07/05/xinjiang-and-uyghurs-what-youre-not-being-told/
So I’ll hope you’ll see it is primarily the U.S. that has been hyping dangerous conflict, whereas China is merely reacting to the threats, which by the way are very real. For example, Hong Kong terrorists are using petrol and acid bombs, beating people unconscious for merely questioning their methods or speaking Mandarin, wearing a red shirt, etc.
I agree that we (the US) are stoking hostilities in HK and that our intentions are far from pure. Trump clearly has it in for China, as does the MIC, neocons, and others. However, that doesn’t mean that the PRC is not heavy handed and worthy of criticism. Just because the US is a bad actor doesn’t make China a good one.
I follow the Uighur issue because a while back my social circle was mostly Turks and because of them I started paying much more attention to the Turkic world. There is a reason so many of them are upset about the Uighur situation, and we can’t really say that Turkey is part of the US propaganda machine. I also get why Erdogan refuses to protest the PRC formally because he’s playing a bigger game.
To sum up, do I trust my American government on China? No way. Do I trust the PRC? Nope. Like I said, it remains to be seen if stoking up national anger in China is a wise decision long term, but I suspect it isn’t. Put another way, I trust nothing the US government says because I know them so well, but any country that comes up with a wretched system like Sesame Credit clearly isn’t interested in freedom, either.
The Turks aren’t necessarily trustworthy either. Look how they demonized Assad with the false accusations re: chemical weapons, etc. I never said there’s no propaganda from China. Glad you agree re: Western propaganda. The biggest difference I see is that China builds infrastructure while the U.S. drops bombs all over the world. And as a patriotic U.S. citizen it is my responsibility to fix my own gov’t, not conveniently point fingers elsewhere and especially not support false propaganda against other countries just because my own gov’t is failing us so they need scapegoats and boogie monsters every day, also to justify their insane military budgets.