People Just Want to Kill the Status Quo – Thoughts on Trump’s Swing State Surge

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Two weeks ago, I wrote a post titled, Don’t Count Out Donald Trump Yet. Let’s take a moment to revisit a few of my observations:

Trump experienced a horrible period from mid-May to mid-June, which culminated in the dismissal of campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Based on my Twitter feed, Trump is finished. I’ve been incessantly bombarded with articles highlighting an ever widening lead for Hillary Clinton nationally in the polls. So is Trump finished? Not by a long shot.

First off, let’s discuss the macro environment. As the Brexit vote demonstrated in spades, people are not in a cheery mood and appear willing to suffer negative consequences in the short-term in order to blow up the status quo. This is hugely important and a huge part of the Trump phenomenon. I also think the arrogant, dismissive, undemocratic and paternalistic attitude of so-called “elites” in the aftermath of Brexit will not be lost on U.S. voters.

Equally interesting, is how incredibly close the race between Clinton and Trump is in a wide variety of swing states, as well as states that typically lean one way or the other. The reason this is happening is we essentially have a race between a nativist populist versus a Wall Street neocon for the first time in recent memory. As such, anyone claiming they know how this will play out is full of…

We are living in an era of justified general disgust. While this disgust manifests itself in all sorts of unproductive ways, the root cause is completely and entirely justified. People see so-called “elites” as the cause of their suffering and they are correct in that assessment. When I say elites, I refer to people who are in charge of crafting our public policy (politicians), those who bribe them (oligarchs) and the pundits who defend them (the mainstream media).

These three groups comprise much, but certainly not all, of what many of us refer to as the “status quo.” These crony capitalists, corrupt legislators and their media gatekeepers have been absolutely instrumental in creating the wretched, lawless and disintegrating socio-economic fabric that anyone with an open mind can clearly see around us. As such, it comes as no surprise to me that Trump has now taken the lead in two swing states, and is tied in a third. Actually, that’s not entirely true, I am pretty surprised about Florida.

As reported by The Hill:

Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in Florida and has a lead in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.

Trump leads Clinton, 42 to 39 percent, in Florida in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. That’s an 11-point swing from last month, when Clinton led 47 to 39 percent.

Trump has also retaken the lead from Clinton in Pennsylvania, where he is now up 43 to 41 percent. Last month, Clinton held a slim lead, 42 to 41 percent.

The pair remains tied in Ohio, where Republicans will gather to formally nominate Trump at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next week. Trump and Clinton each get 41 percent apiece there. In the poll last month, each won 40 percent.

The shift in the polls comes after a tough week on the campaign trail for Clinton, who dodged criminal charges from the FBI over her use of a private email server while secretary of state but was criticized harshly by FBI Director James Comey.

“While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Now here’s where it really gets interesting.

Trump sees a bigger lead over Clinton in each of the states when third-party candidates are factored in: He leads Clinton by 5 points in Florida, 41 to 36 percent, with 7 percent going for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

With the third-party candidates in the mix, Trump takes a 1-point lead over Clinton in Ohio, 37 to 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Clinton by 6 points, 40 to 34 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent.

All indications are that both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will be on the ballot in a majority of states, so what does this mean for the general election? I’ll let you come to your own conclusions.

What really surprised me today is the continued cluelessness of even the somewhat enlightened, celebrated thinkers out there. In this case, I’m referring to Robert Reich, who I applaud for having done some very good work which I have specifically highlighted on these pages. As such, I was stunned to see the following tweet from him earlier today (my response included).

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Robert Reich gets it more than most, yet still harbors an enormous blindspot. How is that? First, I think that most of his conversations in everyday life are with people from deep within the “status quo.” As such, he’s having discussions within an echo chamber of incompetent and corrupt people. The ones who aren’t incompetent or corrupt are simply in a state of complete denial as to the reality around them.

Here’s the thing Robert. The American public is far more pissed off than even you’d like to admit. Part of the reason you refuse to admit it is that this reality is truly terrifying. You’d have to acknowledge that people are so upset, they so want to blow up the status quo, that they’d even vote for the buffoon Trump to do it. While I’m not 100% sure we’re there yet, we’re much closer than most people care to admit.

For related articles, see:

Don’t Count Out Donald Trump Yet

Trump Appeals to Sanders Supporters and Lands First Real Punch Against Clinton

“What Difference Does It Make” – Thoughts on the Non-Indictment of Hillary Clinton

Jill Stein of the Green Party – Clinton Helped Create Trump

“Bernie or Bust” – Over 50,000 Sanders Supporters Pledge to Never Vote for Hillary

Another Brilliant Analysis on Why Trump Will Beat Clinton

Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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9 thoughts on “People Just Want to Kill the Status Quo – Thoughts on Trump’s Swing State Surge”

  1. Donald Trump is not only a pathological liar and pathological narcissist like Hillary Clinton, he is also a pathological rapist:

    http://freedom-articles.toolsforfreedom.com/trump-pedophile-lawsuit

    Trump is a (silent) member of the CFR and a member of the same cabal as Clinton.

    Dream as you may like to that he is something different, he is not.

    Remember how you thought Obama was the second coming when he first appeared out of nowhere and you elected him? Well it’s the same agenda here.

    Reply
  2. So color me a fool, but I do perceive Trump more likely to blow up the “status quo” then Hillary. And I do perceive Hillary blowing up the world more so than Trump. Basically its a F. U. vote, no need to make it more complicated than that.

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  3. Aloha Michael…I am sorry Mr Rubin is cut out of the Same..CLOTH..as those who believed Britain would Stay…please keep in mind..he’s a Broken Clock..though Right twice a Day….lolol aloha and thanks for reading

    Reply
  4. ” The American public is far more pissed off than even you’d like to admit. Part of the reason you refuse to admit it is that this reality is truly terrifying. ”

    I suppose it could be worse than it is already, but only marginally so. You are correct. Unbelievably pissed off. Burn it down.

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  5. this might be and odd thing to say but i think trump is the change candidate for 2016 that obama was in 2008 when he ran against hillary.

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  6. Robert Reich – the socialist? He supports the very system that killed over 100 million people in the last century in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic. You realize that when he speaks of taking money from “the rich,” he means you and me, but never the puppet masters.

    Reply
  7. Michael, I just found this on zero hedge not related to this post, but I think you should know:

    “Use this as a list of places NOT to be on Friday the 15th. While the video by Anonymous does specify non-violence and denounces the actions taken against police officers that were not involved in these deaths, with the tagline “Day of Rage” I think it’s safe to expect emotions to be running very high on both sides of the line. No matter how great your empathy might be for those who have unjustly lost their lives, these protests are not safe places to be.

    These are the locations and times for the protests:

    Phoenix: 5:00PM (EASTLAKE PARK, 1549 E Jefferson St , Phoenix, AZ 85034)
    Tuscon: 5:00PM (CATALINA PARK, 900 N 4th Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85705)
    Little Rock: 6:00PM (OUTSIDE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, Dr Martin Luther King Jr Dr., Little Rock, AR 72201)
    San Francisco: 4:00PM (CIVIC CENTER PLAZA, 355 Mcallister St, San Francisco, California 94102)
    Oakland: 4:00PM (FRANK OGAWA PLAZA, 1 Frank H Ogawa Plaza, Oakland, CA 94612)
    Los Angeles: 4:00PM (LEIMERT PLAZA PARK, 4395 Leimert Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90008)
    Denver: 5:00PM (CIVIC CENTER PARK, 100 W 14th Ave Pkwy, Denver, Colorado 80204)
    Washington DC: 7:00PM (OUTSIDE WHITE HOUSE, 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20500)
    Atlanta: 7:00PM (OLD DECATUR COURTHOUSE, 101 E Court Sq, Decatur, GA 30030)
    Tampa: 7:00PM (OUTSIDE HILLSBOROUGH COURTHOUSE, 800 E Twiggs St, Tampa, FL)
    Orlando: 7:00PM (LAKE EOLA PARK, 195 N Rosalind Ave, Orlando, Florida 32801)
    Miami: 7:00PM (GWEN CHERRY PARK, NW 71 St., Miami, Florida, 33147)
    Chicago: 6:00PM (RICHARD J DALEY CENTER, 50 W Washington St, Chicago, Illinois 60602)
    Des Moines: 6:00PM (IOWA STATE CAPITOL, 1007 E Grand Ave, Des Moines, IA 50319)
    New Orleans: 6:00PM (LAFAYETTE SQUARE, New Orleans, LA 70130)
    Baltimore: 7:00PM (201 E Pratt St, Baltimore, MD 21202)
    Boston: 7:00PM (MASSACHUSETTS STATE HOUSE, 24 Beacon St, Boston, MA 01233)
    Detroit: 7:00PM (Campus Martius Park, Detroit, Michigan 48226)
    Lansing: 7:00PM (STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, Capitol Avenue at Michigan Avenue, Lansing, MI 48933)
    Ann Arbor: 7:00PM (THE DIAG, Burns Park, Ann Arbor, MI 48109)
    Minneapolis: 6:00PM (MINNEAPOLIS URBAN LEAGUE, 2100 Plymouth Ave N, Minneapolis, MN 55411
    St. Louis: 6:00PM (GATEWAY ARCH, St. Louis 63102)
    Carson City: 4:00PM (NEVADA STATE CAPITOL BUILDING, 101 N Carson St, Carson City, Nevada 89701)
    Manhattan, NY: 7:00PM (TIMES SQUARE, Manhattan, NY, 10036)
    Newark: 7:00PM (NEWARK CITY HALL, 920 Broad Street, Newark, New Jersey 07102)
    Durham: 7:00PM (200 E. Main St. Durham, North Carolina)
    Columbus: 7:00PM (GOODALE PARK, Columbus, Ohio 43215)
    Cleveland: 7:00PM (CLEVELAND PUBLIC LIBRARY, 325 Superior Ave E, Cleveland, Ohio 44114)
    Portland: 4:00PM (PIONEER COURTHOUSE SQUARE, 701 SW 6th Ave, Portland, Oregon 97204)
    Philadelphia: 7:00PM (LOVE PARK, 1599 John F Kennedy Blvd, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19102)
    Pittsburgh: 7:00PM (PITTSBURGH CITY-COUNTY BUILDING, 414 Grant St, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15219)
    Nashville: 6:00PM (801 Broadway Nashville, TN 37203 Estes Kefauver Federal Building)
    Memphis: 6:00PM (Health Sciences Park Memphis, TN)
    Austin: 6:00PM (TEXAS STATE CAPITOL, Outside South Gate-11th and Congress Ave.)
    Salt Lake City: 5:00PM (SALT LAKE CITY COMMUNITY COLLEGE, 4600 S Redwood Rd, Salt Lake City, Utah 84123)
    Seattle: 4:00PM (QUEEN ANNE BAPTIST CHURCH, 2011 1st Ave N, Seattle, Washington 98109)
    Milwaukee: 5:00PM (DINEEN PARK, Milwaukee, Wisconsin)

    And if your home happens to be in or near one of these areas, be aware that your city could be under siege. Make plans to stay safe and hunker down with emergency food and purified water, or to go someplace safer.”

    Also, I read that Obama will be declaring martial law on Saturday.

    Reply

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