New Quinnipiac Survey – Trump and Clinton Tied in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

A Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.

– From February’s post: Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump

The latest Quinnipiac University Survey on the 2016 U.S. Presidential election is absolutely fascinating, and presents some very bad news for team Clinton, as well as all the clueless pundits who say Trump can’t win.

The major takeaway is that Trump and Clinton are locked in a total dead heat in the three key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is remarkable considering all the heinous things Trump said on his way to the GOP nomination, and the fact that he’s barely started to “sell” himself to the general electorate, which is his primary skill in life.

Several things we already knew were confirmed by the survey, such as the fact that Clinton dominates Trump when it comes to women and minorities. Trump likewise dominates when it comes to white men. The only interesting aspect is how huge the spreads are within these categories.

The truly fascinating takeaway from the survey can be found in the details. The key demographics Clinton needs to do well in (youth and independents) are areas in which she struggles mightily in these swing states. In contrast, Bernie Sanders dominates Trump in those two categories, proving once again that he’s by far the stronger general election candidate.

Here’s some of what we learned from Quinnipiac:

In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. 

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. 

The presidential matchups show:

• Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;

• Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;

• Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.

“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. 

“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.” 

Strange. I could’ve sworn all the super smart beltway experts told us Trump would get slaughtered by Clinton.

Florida

Independent voters are divided 39 – 39 percent. White voters go Republican 52 – 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63 – 20 percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton 49 – 27 percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump 50 – 37 percent. 

Clinton and Trump each get a negative 37 – 57 percent favorability rating. 

Florida is the one state where Clinton dominates the youth vote, but Sanders would do much, much better. Also see how poorly she does amongst independents, while Sanders wins Florida independents handily.

Ohio

The age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. 

Independent voters go 40 percent for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton. 

Clinton gets a negative 34 – 62 percent favorability, compared to Trump’s negative 36 – 57 percent. 

Ohio shows you what happens when Clinton struggles with the youth vote. Trump wins.

Once again we see Trump also doing very well with independents against Hillary. Against Sanders, Trumps loses independents by 10 points.

Here are the detailed tables for Ohio:

Pennsylvania 

Clinton edges Trump 43 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while Trump has a slim 49 – 42 percent lead among voters over 65 years old. 

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, 37 – 58 percent for her and 39 – 55 percent for him. 

In Pennsylvania, we see Clinton does better with the youth vote, but not good enough. If it were Sanders running, he would destroy Trump 56% to 38% in that demographic and win the state easily.

Moreover look at the tables to see how poorly Clinton does amongst independents in Pennsylvania. She loses by 43% to 36% to Trump, while Sanders takes independents 48% to 39%. This is a huge differential.

Here are the detailed tables for Pennsylvania:

Bottom line. Clinton can’t beat Trump without either huge margins amongst the youth vote, or a strong showing with independents. Sanders is unquestionably stronger within both demographics, yet the Democratic Party insists on nominating Clinton.

In case you’re wondering why I’m so obsessed with independents, it’s because 43% of the public identifies as such. As I explained in the recent post, Could Trump Beat Clinton in New York? Yes.

I believe the key to 2016 will be independents, which we learned earlier this year make up a massive 43% if the American public. Yes, it’s true that many of these “independents” lean toward one party or the other, but I’d argue Democratic-leaning independents are probably not big Hillary Rodham Clinton fans.

Never forget this chart when thinking about the general:

Most pundits will say the 2016 election is Hillary’s to lose. I see it the other way. Given the justified angst amongst the populace, and Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to read an audience and sell himself to it, I actually think this election is the Donald’s to lose.

For related articles, see:

Trump Leads Clinton 41% to 39% in Latest Rasmussen Survey

Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump

Could Trump Beat Clinton in New York? Yes.

Hillary Clinton’s Full Speech to Goldman Sachs (Satire)

Camille Paglia – “Enough with the Hillary Cult”

Who’s the Real Progressive? A Side by Side Comparison of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton’s Lifetime Donors

The Real Reason Hillary Clinton Refuses to Release Her Wall Street Transcripts

“We’re Going to War” – Oliver Stone Opines on the Dangerous Extremism of Neocon Hillary Clinton

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

Follow me on Twitter.