One thing Clinton supporters remain in complete denial about (other than the fact most Americans who don’t identify as Democrats find her to be somewhere in between untrustworthy and criminal), is that a significant number of Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. Forget the fact that I know a few personally, I’ve noticed several interviews with voters who proclaim Sanders to be their first choice but Trump their second. Are they just saying this or do they mean it? I think a lot of them mean it.
– From the post: Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump
I continue to see Hillary Clinton as one of the most overrated political figures in American history, and Donald Trump as one of the most underrated. This is why I think “the experts” are wrong about the outcome of a potential Clinton vs. Trump showdown in the general election.
Hillary’s weaknesses are obvious. I’ve highlighted new shameless transgressions or scandals on these pages virtually every day for several months now. Furthermore, the fact that the grassroots campaign juggernaut known as the Sanders movement seemingly came out of nowhere, proves there’s a huge ideological vacuum on left just asking to be filled in light of Clinton’s neoconservative candidacy.
As far as Trump’s concerned, I’m of the view that his real genius is marketing and his tremendous force of personality. He’s not so much a brilliant businessman, as he is virtually peerless when it comes to selling himself to whomever he targets. While I don’t condone or respect such behavior, I do think a lot of what he said during the primary was carefully crafted rhetoric designed to appeal to a certain demographic in order to win the nomination. It worked. The fact that he knew exactly what to say, while most pundits kept expecting his frequent outbursts to bury him proves that he knew what he was doing, and exposed the pundits’ cluelessness.
If he ends up as the Republican nominee in the general election, he’ll analyze the American public as a whole, as opposed to merely registered Republicans, and he’ll campaign accordingly. Can he pull this off? If anyone can, he can. He’s a billionaire primarily because he is a genius at knowing exactly what people want and then selling himself to them.
With that out of the way, let’s get to the crux of this article. The question posed is; can Trump beat Clinton in New York? For this, I want to highlight a couple of paragraphs from The Week article, The Clinton Doomsday Scenario:
On first glance, everything seemed to go swimmingly for Hillary Clinton in New York last week, and foreshadowed a big Empire State victory for her in the general election. In the primary, she earned more than 1 million votes — nearly double the 525,000 of Donald Trump. Plus, she’s a Democrat. She’s a New Yorker. She’ll crush him there in the fall, right? And then sweep to victory in a massive electoral landslide unlike anything we’ve seen since 1984?
Well, possibly. Maybe even probably. But don’t bank on it.
Lots of pundits have posited that Trump could actually beat Clinton in New York. Most of them make a variant of two arguments: One, his appeal to white working class voters is strong; two: he’s more of a rough-and-tumble, born-and-bred New Yorker than she is, and has a stronger claim to the state. Both of these arguments are trivially true.
Furthermore, the New York primary was closed — no independents allowed — and because Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York state by a two-to-one margin, Hillary’s big vote total was exactly what one would expect her to get if she had the same level of organic support among Democrats as Trump did among Republicans.
There’s another caveat: Trump ran against two other candidates; Clinton ran against only one. That further dilutes the strength of her victory.
And another: Polls show that the independent voters who couldn’t vote because of New York’s primary rules would have supported either Trump or Bernie Sanders; very few would have chosen Clinton.
A final nugget from the exit polls: 20 percent of Sanders supporters say they’d support Trump in the fall over Clinton.
I believe the key to 2016 will be independents, which we learned earlier this year make up a massive 43% if the American public. Yes, it’s true that many of these “independents” lean toward one party or the other, but I’d argue Democratic-leaning independents are probably not big Hillary Rodham Clinton fans.
Never forget this chart when thinking about the general:
Most pundits will say the 2016 election is Hillary’s to lose. I see it the other way. Given the justified angst amongst the populace, and Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to read an audience and sell himself to it, I actually think this election is the Donald’s to lose.
Stay tuned.
For related articles, see:
Hillary Clinton’s Full Speech to Goldman Sachs (Satire)
Camille Paglia – “Enough with the Hillary Cult”
Why Hillary Clinton Cannot Beat Donald Trump
The Real Reason Hillary Clinton Refuses to Release Her Wall Street Transcripts
“We’re Going to War” – Oliver Stone Opines on the Dangerous Extremism of Neocon Hillary Clinton
In Liberty,
Michael Krieger
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That Trump appeals to “independents” is a myth. Among the Republican candidates, Trump generally polls the worst among independents. As far as Trump beating Hillary Clinton in New York, NY is one of Trump’s best and head-to-head polling still shows Trump losing the state by nearly 20 points. Trump is probably the only Republican candidate who is so flawed, so reviled that his nomination would not only likely cost Republicans the White House, but the Senate and maybe the House as well.
Here’s why I think you’re wrong, and I’m not a Trump fan.
I agree that as we speak Trump doesn’t have a ton of appeal to independents, although he has some. My belief is that he will completely change his rhetoric in the general election, and by the time November comes around he will have a lot of appeal to independents, especially if he is running against Hillary Clinton.
Second, if Hillary is his opponent, the election will be seen as someone who could potentially turn over the status quo apple cart, and someone who is owned lock, stock and barrel by the status quo. If he plays his cards right, Trump can get independents who don’t like him all that much to still vote for him just to upset the system, to switch things up.
All of this depends on Trump’s ability as a salesman for his own brand, which I think he is a genius at.
If Bernie Sanders was running against Trump, none of this would apply since I think Sanders would win in a landslide. However, when you combine the corruptness of Hillary and the salesmanship of Trump, there could be a huge upset in the making.
I do not believe Trump will beat Clinton under any circumstances. He is not presidential quality and has no stability as a leader, and I am not a Clinton fan. Is it true Trump’s bots have physically threatened delegates who choose not to support trump? I do not believe Trump took the five states honestly. It was rigged by him. If someone else wins, he whines and spreads his poisonous hate everywhere. Sad that he has consistently degraded a good conservative candidate that could beat Hillary. We will be in worse situation if Trump or Hillary win. They both are deceptive, sneaky and dishonest and dangerous.
When public approval of the mainstream media is in the gutter with approval ratings for Congress you can safely bet the people will line up in droves to vote against the candidate either institution’s insiders promote. Their endorsement is the kiss of death. Their attacks are like fuel to the outsiders.
I think the ultimate revolution provocation would be to spring some establishment insider (of the brown-noser pol RINO variety) onto the voters in Cleveland to “oppose” the other insider. They (and their gutter approval ratings ) are already floating trial balloons to that end.
Just wait until Sanders is out of the picture. Trump will grab his working class appealing rhetoric in a go. Clinton is the perfect opponent for Trump, he will certainly use that well.
And then with the media churning the Trump brand 24/7 Clinton will find no space to breathe.
Most folk assume Trump to be plain stupid. But he is just speaking to the ignorant and the media that shepherd them.
Trump isn’t stupid, he’s just an ignorant buffoon.
You are on crack if you think Trump can beat Hillary in New York.
True, but I’d have to be on crack to vote for either of these NY con-weasels.
Rochelle and others, you’re making the same mistake that other observers and pundits who were wrong about Trump’s victory in the primary made. You’re projecting your own beliefs and expectations onto all the other voters. They don’t see things the way you see them. If you can put yourself in their place, then you’ll understand why Trump is more than likely to beat Clinton in November.
Women aren’t crazy. MOST WOMEN DON’T LIKE TRUMP (at best) and WON’T VOTE FOR HIM EVEN AS MANY OF THEM ARE ALSO UNWILLING TO VOTE FOR HILLARY. Admit reality: we have two potential candidates with Trump and Hillary whose negatives are off the charts!