Is Greece About to Play its Geopolitical Trump Card and Ignite a Chain Reaction Across Europe?

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If the EMU powers persist mechanically with their stale demands – even reverting to terms that the previous pro-EMU government in Athens rejected in December – they risk setting off a political chain-reaction that can only eviscerate the EU Project as a motivating ideology in Europe. 

Forced Grexit would entrench a pervasive suspicion that EU bodies are ultimately agents of creditor enforcement. It would expose the Project’s post-war creed of solidarity as so much humbug.

Greece could not plausibly remain in Nato if ejected from EMU in acrimonious circumstances. It would drift into the Russian orbit, where Hungary’s Viktor Orban already lies. The southeastern flank of Europe’s security system would fall apart.

Mr Tsipras is now playing the Russian card with an icy ruthlessness, more or less threatening to veto fresh EU measures against the Kremlin as the old set expires. “We disagree with sanctions. The new European security architecture must include Russia,” he told the TASS news agency. 

He offered to turn Greece into a strategic bridge, linking the two Orthodox nations. “Russian-Greek relations have very deep roots in history,” he said, hitting all the right notes before his trip to Moscow next week.

– From Ambrose Evans Pritchard’s article in the Telegraph: Greek Defiance Mounts as Alexis Tsipras Turns to Russia and China.

Over the past couple of months, I’ve at times been a strong critic of Greek leadership’s seeming unwillingness to demonstrate the courage necessary to flip the bird to EU bureaucrats and usher in paradigm level change for the long suffering nation. At the core of the problem seems the be the mandate under which Syriza was elected — namely to end austerity, but remain in the euro.

This presents a serious problem, since the threat of leaving the euro is the only real leverage the Greeks have. If they aren’t willing to risk that, then they aren’t really willing to risk much of anything. The key issue facing Tsipras and Varoufakis seems to be how they can take bold action while at the same time reducing the severity of the immediate pain certain to come in the short-term. Surely EU bureaucrats and the U.S. would try to punish Greece as severely as possible so as to ensure that other uppity Southern European nations would never dare follow in their footsteps. This is where a pivot toward Russia and China might provide a hedge and some leverage. Ambrose Evans Pritchard discusses this in his excellent article published by the Telegraph.

Here are some excerpts:

Two months of EU bluster and reproof have failed to cow Greece. It is becoming clear that Europe’s creditor powers have misjudged the nature of the Greek crisis and can no longer avoid facing the Morton’s Fork in front of them. 

Any deal that goes far enough to assuage Greece’s justly-aggrieved people must automatically blow apart the austerity settlement already fraying in the rest of southern Europe. The necessary concessions would embolden populist defiance in Spain, Portugal and Italy, and bring German euroscepticism to the boil. 

Emotional consent for monetary union is ebbing dangerously in Bavaria and most of eastern Germany, even if formulaic surveys do not fully catch the strength of the undercurrents.

Yet if the EMU powers persist mechanically with their stale demands – even reverting to terms that the previous pro-EMU government in Athens rejected in December – they risk setting off a political chain-reaction that can only eviscerate the EU Project as a motivating ideology in Europe. 

Alexis Tsipras leads the first radical-Leftist government elected in Europe since the Second World War. His Syriza movement is, in a sense, totemic for the European Left, even if sympathisers despair over its chaotic twists and turns. As such, it is a litmus test of whether progressives can pursue anything resembling an autonomous economic policy within EMU. 

We live in gentler times today, yet any decision to eject Greece and its Syriza rebels from the euro by cutting off liquidity to the Greek banking system would amount to the same thing, since the EU authorities do not have a credible justification or a treaty basis for acting in such a way. Rebuking Syriza for lack of “reform” sticks in the craw, given the way the EU-IMF Troika winked at privatization deals that violated the EU’s own competition rules, and chiefly enriched a politically-connected elite. 

Forced Grexit would entrench a pervasive suspicion that EU bodies are ultimately agents of creditor enforcement. It would expose the Project’s post-war creed of solidarity as so much humbug.

Willem Buiter, Citigroup’s chief economist, warns that Greece faces an “economic show of horrors” if it returns to the drachma, but it will not be a pleasant affair for Europe either. “Monetary union is meant to be unbreakable and irrevocable. If it is broken, and if it is revoked, the question will arise over which country is next,” he said. 

What a clown. Nothing created by man is unbreakable and irrevocable. That is the one undisputed lesson from history.

Greece could not plausibly remain in Nato if ejected from EMU in acrimonious circumstances. It would drift into the Russian orbit, where Hungary’s Viktor Orban already lies. The southeastern flank of Europe’s security system would fall apart.

Rightly or wrongly, Mr Tsipras calculates that the EU powers cannot allow any of this to happen, and therefore that their bluff can be called. “We are seeking an honest compromise, but don’t expect an unconditional agreement from us,” he told the Greek parliament this week.

Mr Tsipras is now playing the Russian card with an icy ruthlessness, more or less threatening to veto fresh EU measures against the Kremlin as the old set expires. “We disagree with sanctions. The new European security architecture must include Russia,” he told the TASS news agency. 

He offered to turn Greece into a strategic bridge, linking the two Orthodox nations. “Russian-Greek relations have very deep roots in history,” he said, hitting all the right notes before his trip to Moscow next week.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, Greece’s energy minister and head of Syriza’s Left Platform, was in Moscow this week meeting Gazprom officials. He voiced a “keen interest” in the Kremlin’s new pipeline plan though Turkey, known as “Turkish Stream”. 

Operating in parallel, Greece’s deputy premier, Yannis Drakasakis, vowed to throw open the Port of Piraeus to China’s shipping group Cosco, giving it priority in a joint-venture with the Greek state’s remaining 67pc stake in the ports. On cue, China has bought €100m of Greek T-bills, helping to plug a funding shortfall as the ECB orders Greek banks to step back. 

One might righteously protest at what amounts to open blackmail by Mr Tsipras, deeming such conduct to be a primary violation of EU club rules. Yet this is to ignore what has been done to Greece over the past four years, and why the Greek people are so angry. 

Leaked IMF minutes from 2010 confirm what Syriza has always argued: the country was already bankrupt and needed debt relief rather than new loans. This was overruled in order to save the euro and to save Europe’s banking system at a time when EMU had no defences against contagion.

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis rightly calls it “a cynical transfer of private losses from the banks’ books onto the shoulders of Greece’s most vulnerable citizens”. A small fraction of the €240bn of loans remained in the Greek economy. Some 90pc was rotated back to banks and financial creditors. The damage was compounded by austerity overkill. The economy contracted so violently that the debt-ratio rocketed instead of coming down, defeating the purpose. 

Marc Chandler, from Brown Brothers Harriman, says the liabilities incurred – pushing Greece’s debt to 180pc of GDP – almost fit the definition of “odious debt” under international law. “The Greek people have not been bailed out. The economy has contracted by a quarter. With deflation, nominal growth has collapsed and continues to contract,” he said. 

The Greeks know this.

It is this clash of two entirely different and conflicting narratives that makes the crisis so intractable. Mr Tsipras told his own inner circle privately before his election in January that if pushed to the wall by the EMU creditor powers, he would tell them “to do their worst”, bringing the whole temple crashing down on their heads. Everything he has done since suggests that he may just mean it. 

Perhaps Greece is about to fool us all and pull off a major power play.

Stay tuned.

For related articles, see:

Video of the Day – Nigel Farage Blasts the Idea of a “European Army” in One of His Most Powerful Diatribes Ever

Standard & Poor’s Warns on Germany as Anti-Euro Political Party Soars in Popularity

A Political Earthquake Hits France: Is a European Union Referendum Next?

Brand New “Podemos” Political Party Surges Ahead of Incumbents in Spain as Catalans Prepare Informal Independence Vote

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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12 thoughts on “Is Greece About to Play its Geopolitical Trump Card and Ignite a Chain Reaction Across Europe?”

  1. i think the media has greatly underestimated syriza. they assumed that when they compromised initially it was game over for them. that was never the case. they were a new coalition and they needed time to figure out a plan. they can’t just flip a switch and be on the drachma. there is no provision in the euro system for a currency exit. they were genuinely hoping that the troika would give them debt relief but they knew it was unlikely. by now, they have had a chance to figure out the basics of how to implement a grexit. it’s going to require all kinds of government edicts and capital controls. the russian pivot is an interesting tactic but a very dangerous one. just rewatch the movie “z.” i’m sure our black ops people are already planning a coup just in case…

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  2. We´re not getting the full picture on this news anywhere in the MSM, the truth is that Europe & especially the US are willing to do whatever it takes to keep Greece in the Euro zone. Besides our $18 Trillion national debt (Europe and Japan are similiar basketcases), there are many reasons why the Banksters will attempt to find a way to kick the can down the road indefinitely. Besides the obvious Bank/CDS losses from a Greek debt default, the likely contagion is particularly menacing to the western financial system. From a Greek perspective the idea of defaulting clearly has its positives: (1) They’d get a fresh start, like someone after declaring bankruptcy, (2) They’d be free of the EU-Russia embargo and would be able to sell their agricultural products to Russia at higher prices than they’re getting now, and (3) They could extend the new Russian gas pipeline coming from Turkey, thereby getting ¨free¨ revenue, boosting employment & ensuring their own future energy needs. But Greece has an immediate problem, lack of liquidity! Okay now first of all consider that Germany (like Japan) is a conquered nation & vassal state of the US, in the end they’ll do as they’re told – ever wondered about what the NSA spying on allied leaders (like Merkel) has dug up? Well, Greece has been in ongoing negotiations with China & Russia for quite some time – all players here are well aware of this. Not surprisingly, China & Russia would be more than happy to help out Greece after they defalult on 100% of their western debt and exit both the EU & NATO – of course this would be in exchange for a long-term lease of the Souda Bay Naval Base in Crete (after the US Navy is kicked out). From the West´s perspective – in the end it´s better to get paid back SOME of the debt (allowing this to drag out as long as possible) and to avoid Russian & Chinese bases in the heart of the Med. So now you know, the rest of the story…

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  3. “Morton’s Fork”, was a taxation gimmick. “If you can afford clothing like that, you have money to pay your taxes”. ” You are dressed so poorly you are hoarding your money, so you have money to pay your taxes”.
    Henry vii Minister.

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  4. mmmm ok, let me see:

    • democracy looks dead in the Western world, from Europe to USA included (of course also Asia and Eurasia democracies are not feeling too well but at least they do not claim to be champions of freedom?)
    • a bunch of bureaucrats and financial pirates took over, using corrupt politicians to establish power beyond any reasonable boundary.
    • human life and dignity, is worth less than poop or any tangible and intangible asset that is worth a poop…
    • at the next credit crunch, international financing help to Italy or Spain will be done under international laws bypassing their internal Lex Moneta, so that any exit from the monetary union will be virtually impossible sealing this aberration or stealing also their wealth in the process…

    I wonder what is wrong here?
    Oh yes, unfortunately the gentlemen and institutions that arrogate for themselves this “power beyond any reasonable boundary”, are extremely small minded, totally inept and un-capable of handling it so much that it seems they are going to destroy themselves and most things and people around them trying to use it.
    Their arrogance and greed, is unfortunately enormously much much bigger than their intelligence.

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  5. I was just introduced to the essay By a chap named Nock; Isaiah’s Task.. He wrote about the “masses” and the “remnants”, the latter the wheelers and dealers who Isaiah was to focus his preaching to. These were the ones who would shape nations. The masses were the lumpen who did not have the discipline or fortitude to live their live independently, requiring direction whilst at the same instance enough sustenance to placate them. The theory is to give them a say in their daily affairs, namely through the power of the vote. They get to vote themselves benefits until there is nothing left to give. The lumpen, both at government and voter level have run out of options, it seems. The remnant will sweep up the mess.

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    • love it, Sergio… masses and remnants? Thanks for reminding what I always try to forget!!! This was like a non lethal wound, enough to hurt, yet not enough to put me out of the misery of watching these idiots… 😉

    • The crux of the essay was that the lumpen masses cannot be saved, even by a Messiah and will have their ways despite the promise of salvation. That essay has given me a new understanding; that I cannot change events or save anyone from their own demise because their path is the one they chose for themselves. After years of banging the drum about the political and financial storms raging and still fermenting, I realised recently that I have not changed the mindset of a single person. It will be what it will be and I will seek refuge from them however possible.
      Sorry to open old wounds.

  6. That is exactly my pain, I have this hope that one day we might all be better humans, no one left behind, yet despite the opportunities, the technological advancements, the knowledge, we are not better off today than we were thousands of years ago… it seems almost as if the intelligence and humanity of a group is far less than the sum of the abilities of every single individual, and the leader of that group reflects the diminished potentials instead of being able to draw power from a full sum of it.

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  7. Greece need only look at Iceland to see the benefits of a grexit and control
    of money supply. Iceland’s economy has grown, money supply will be controlled by the treasury (not via the central bank or the banks’ fractional reserve lending) and at a level not above gdp. the Turkish/russia gas pipeline will benefit greece hugely. the geostrategic change will be enormous. I would add to exit nato immediately (cost saving) and have ALL ngos formally register or be closed down. replace all your commercial planes with Russian made and avoid the BHUAP and ATI systems which brought the germanwings plane down.

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  8. Okay, where to start? First question you should all be asking yourselves – why does a sovereign nation need to borrow money from the private bankers? Answer, they don’t have to but a cabal of criminals (House of Rothschild and other banking dynasties) have set up over the centuries the private central banking system which allows the banks to create money completely out of thin air as debt and then to buy Bonds from these sovereign nations who then get their taxpayers to pay interest on this nothingness. It’s completely insane but true – in Britain the taxpayers are paying over £50 billion a year for loans created from absolutely nothing. People need to wake up! And how many of you have heard of the Bank for International Settlements? Hardly anyone, yet this private and secretive organisation controls around 95% of the world’s money supply through their network of sixty central banks including the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the ECB. It’s ALL a scam to enable the globalist banksters to control the world and to create their version of global governance that George Orwell would immediately recognise.

    So what’s the solution to this criminal madness. Simple, VERY simple! Any sovereign nation has the absolute right to issue and control its own money supply through its treasury, not its central bank. The money would be created debt-free and interest-free based on the credit, wealth and potential of that nation in order to meet the needs, security and happiness of that nation. That’s it! And it’s been done before very successfully until the bankers, using their treasonous and compliant politicians, stepped in to restore the insanity of borrowing from the debt-creating banksters. In 18th century America the colonists issued their own paper money called Colonial Scrip which secured for the colonial Americans a vibrant and prosperous economy free from debt. The City of London moved in to close this system down by triggering the American War of Independence and even though Britain lost the war, the new United States was eventually manoeuvred into accepting private banks and their debt-creating scam.

    This went on until the American Civil War. Abraham Lincoln, in order to fund the North’s war effort without putting the American nation into the private bankers’ debt noose, instructed the US Treasury to issue and control its own debt-free paper currency. Called Greenback Dollars, they proved a huge success and were instrumental in helping the North to win the war. Lincoln didn’t live to see the results of his victory as he was very soon assassinated by someone many believe was in the pay of the City of London. One hundred years later, John F Kennedy, with his brother Bobby, issued Executive Order 11110 which authorised the US Treasury to bypass the Federal Reserve by issuing debt-free Government Dollars based on Treasury held silver certificates. A few months later Kennedy was dead and some researchers link his assassination with the international bankers.

    At the outbreak of World War One, in order to avoid a run on the banks by nervous investors taking out their gold, the British Government was authorised by Parliament to create Treasury-issued (not the Bank of England) debt-free and interest-free money based on the nation’s credit and standing. Called Bradbury Pounds (after Sir John Bradbury the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury) these notes proved a great success. Go to http://www.britishconstitutiongroup.com/campaign/bring-back-the-bradbury and learn about what then happened to the Bradbury Pound and how the private bankers brought about its demise. A movement is now gaining traction in the UK to bring about the restoration of the debt-free Bradbury Pound and so defeat forever the machinations of the criminal global financial elite, including of course The City of London.

    So the bottom line is this – and Greece please take note – any sovereign nation has an ABSOLUTE right to issue and control its own debt-free and interest-free money through its treasury based on that nation’s credit. And this will not lead to hyperinflation (as the banksters and their useful idiots will tell you ad nauseam) as intelligent and targeted taxation would remove any excess heat from the economy. The hyperinflation seen in the Weimar Republic was triggered by the Weimar’s privately controlled central bank backed up by currency speculators on Wall Street and in the City of London. So there we have it – governments do not have to borrow money from the private bankers and the whole central banking system, including the criminal Bank for International Settlements, must now be closed down thus releasing humanity from unlawful debt servitude..

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  9. Imagine for a second the disastrous consequences of a Grexit over the eurozone. If it happens, it’s very likely other eurozone countries leave the EU (such as Spain or Italy). I don’t it is going to happen anytime soon as long as Greece honors its debt.

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