Will a Turkey Related Event Spark a Much Wider Regional War?

I haven’t commented on the Middle East in a while, but a lot has been going on. In particular, Turkey continues to concern me the most, as president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan appears increasingly unstable, paranoid and tyrannical. The latest example came last month, when his government went ahead and arrested academics merely for signing a petition. Here’s what we learned from the post, U.S. Ally Turkey Arrests Academics for the Crime of Signing a Peace Petition:

Hundreds of Turkish academics are waiting to find out whether they will be prosecuted or sacked for spreading “terrorist propaganda”, after they signed a petition calling for violence to end in Turkey’s southeast, where government forces have been fighting Kurdish separatists.

Turkey’s government has previously clamped down on scientists and students who question its policiesimprisoned scientists charged with terrorism offenses, and restricted the freedom of funding agencies and scientific academies. But the number of arrests and investigations makes the current episode one of the larger Turkish attacks on freedom of expression in recent years, prompting outrage among human-rights advocates.

While this is bad enough, Turkey’s reputation on the global stage had already been severely damaged by the emergence of evidence of government support for ISIS. Throw in the downing of a Russian jet, and you start to see an increasingly chaotic country with the potential to kick off some serious geopolitical fireworks.

With all that in mind, an article I recently read in Al Monitor materially added to my fears. Here are some excerpts from the piece, Will Turkey Risk Military Confrontation with Russia?

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