Weekly Articles 2012

It’s the first time we have power with people that don’t have courage. The people on top have power without courage. You cannot find any other society like it. Take the knights. The knights were people who of course, their trade was risking their lives. In theory, The President of the United States was supposed to be first in battle. Not someone pushing a button. The only way you can have a safe society is by moving these types of people (that risk nothing personally and take all the upside) out of their positions. Making them more accountable.

– Nassim Taleb (in this fantastic interview).

From our perspective, this is a critical idea. As we have said for several years, we do not see Iran as close to having a nuclear weapon. They may be close to being able to test a crude nuclear device under controlled circumstances (and we don’t know this either), but the development of a deliverable nuclear weapon poses major challenges for Iran.

Moreover, while the Iranians may aspire to a deterrent via a viable nuclear weapons capability, we do not believe the Iranians see nuclear weapons as militarily useful. A few such weapons could devastate Israel, but Iran would be annihilated in retaliation. While the Iranians talk aggressively, historically they have acted cautiously. For Iran, nuclear weapons are far more valuable as a notional threat and bargaining chip than as something to be deployed. Indeed, the ideal situation is not quite having a weapon, and therefore not forcing anyone to act against them, but seeming close enough to be taken seriously. They certainly have achieved that.

– Stratfor “Considering a U.S.-Iranian Deal,” January 24th, 2012

I’ve Always Loved History
I’ve always loved history. Even all the way back to grade school I remember it being my favorite subject. Very early on I noticed certain patterns in history and I wondered why they occurred. When I was first exposed to European history, I recall being absolutely floored by how certain countries could become so rich and powerful and then subsequently collapse so stunningly and rapidly. The one that really boggled my mind was Spain – the homeland of my maternal grandfather who I never met. Here was a country that conquered and viciously looted essentially all South America other than Brazil (thanks to the pope being magnanimous enough to grant that part of the world to Portugal in the Treaty of Tordesillas), Mexico, Central America and parts of the United States. The gold and especially silver that was taken back to Spain was the stuff of legend, yet almost at the same time they had defeated the native peoples overseas their kingdom at home was crumbling. Not to bore anyone with too much history, but by the mid 1500s the Spanish had essentially conquered the Aztecs (Mexico) and the Incas (Peru). At the time, the Aztec capital, Tenochtitlan was estimated to be larger than any city in Europe. Despite these tremendous “successes” and the riches that came with them, the battle of Rocroi in Northern France in 1643 less than one hundred years later marked the end of Spanish dominance in Europe. What is so fascinating to me is that while the conquistadors were out raping and pillaging halfway around the world the domestic economy was experiencing economic crisis. There were episodes of major currency debasements in the homeland as the crown was forced to fight wars on their borders as well as fund the excursions abroad. It is important to note that the collapse came pretty quickly as it was only in 1627 when things were still looking pretty good for the empire that The Count-Duke Olivares famously stated: “God is Spanish and fights for our nation these days.” Does this story sound familiar?

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As long as the systems of control, crafted carefully over centuries by the entrenched elites, were able to sustain themselves within the illusions that they had embedded within the language, the mechanisms of control were possible. Stated another way for clarity; as long as the entrenched elite had control of the illusion, the illusion of control works for them. However, the opposite is also true, and this is where we find ourselves now; that is to say, at a point in time where the entrenched elite are using the control systems so badly that they are stepping outside of the inherent limitations imposed by the use of language as their primary control mechanism. Again, stated another way for clarity….when the ‘prime proponents of democracy planet-wide (e.g. usa senators)’ vote to ‘legalize their war on their constituent populace’ they are stepping outside of the inherent common consensus understanding of ‘USA democracy’ at such a level as to disrupt the illusion that allows them to control. Make any sense at all? The ‘herd’ is smelling the ‘slaughter house’, both metaphorically and actually. The stench of blood work travels on the air.

– Clif High

Building Tension

Everything seems extremely slow and boring right now.  After so much happened in bursts during various periods last year, we are currently in a gestation period.  We are in a period of building tension.  In retrospect, it seems that this period began in September/October of last year, thus it has now been building energy for almost five months.  This period of building tension happened after the last major release of energy in this Fourth Turning and that was in August/September, with the debt ceiling debt debacle, markets crashing, gold soaring and the emergence on the scene for the first time of a “progressive/urban rebellion” against bankster puppet Barack Obama from within his own set of perceived supporters.  Namely, the OWS movement.

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Now consider that an ideologue is not necessarily a fanatic.  What he does is adjust most of his ideas to circumstances, without recognizing the opportunism latent in such ideological adjustments.  The opportunism of a great statesman, on the other hand, rests on principles.  What John Morley once wrote about Edmund Burke may be applied to Churchill: “He changed his stand; but he never changed his ground.” Or what the aged Metternich once wrote: that an idea is like a fixed gun in a fortress, ready to fire and to hit error in one straight direction; but a principle is like a gun mounted on a fixed but revolving base, capable of firing at error in all directions. 

– John Lukacs in Churchill: Visionary, Statesman, Historian

Ron Paul

I hold a deeply held view of Ron Paul as an honorable, genuine and trustworthy American statesman.  In fact, I cannot really think of anyone else in the tepid cesspool of American politics today whom I could even remotely categorize as a statesman as opposed to a run of the mill politician (or ideologue as Mr. Lucas puts it).  Mr. Lucas moves on to explain that to an ideologue it is current ideas that matter, while to a statesman it is certain principles that matter.  He states that an ideologue’s view of the world and its inhabitants is political, while to a statesman it is historical.  These simple sentences are what I believe inherently separate Ron Paul at his very core  from everyone else currently running for president.  This is merely what separates the man’s character from the others.  This is reason enough to consider him, but not reason enough to vote for him.  His ideas about liberty, war and economics also separate him from the pack and it is his strongly held principles on these subjects that in my view make him the only one capable and with enough conviction to help heal this country’s wounds, get us back on the right and moral path and foster real change as opposed to a campaign slogan.

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