The first two parts of this series focused on how Trump-specific factors could lead the American empire into another series of foolish and highly destructive wars. Part 1 discussed my concerns regarding Iran deal certification, as well as Trump’s increased coziness with Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, who appears to get turned on by the use of violent force. Part 2 considered how Trump might sell his wars by promoting an environment of slobbering, superficial patriotism, and also speculated that corporate media might rally behind Trump if the target of his aggression happens to be Iran.
Today’s piece will be slightly different. The prior posts focused on Trump-specific angles with regard to how America’s forthcoming military mistake might play out, but I want to make one thing clear. While Trump carries his own unique risks when it comes to militarism overseas, this is all much bigger than Trump.
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, I’ve become convinced that the U.S. empire will never reform on its own. There’s simply too much money and power at stake, and we already know oligarchs are above the law under our two-tier justice system. The biggest financial criminals of a generation were not only spared prison for their actions, but were handsomely rewarded. Wall Street ran the Obama administration before, and it runs the Trump administration now. It’s become clear to me that these lawless elite crooks and their enablers will continue with their insane and oppressive policies until the whole thing collapses. Whether Trump, Pence or Hillary Clinton run the charade doesn’t change where this train is headed.
I say this because I don’t want people to think I believe everything would work out fine if Trump wasn’t in charge. Our society is extraordinarily corrupt, delusional and systemically abusive. The public no longer has confidence in any of our institutions and for very good reasons. Our institutions exist merely to serve as gatekeepers to protect predatory crooks from the consequences of their actions.
The reason I focus on war leading to a more dangerous phase of imperial collapse is because I think that’s the most likely way this thing will go down. When I look around at those in positions of power or influence in the U.S., I don’t see people who’ve learned lessons from Iraq, Libya and now Yemen. Rather, I see a continued consensus of interventionists who’ll never stop looking for the next country to bomb. As such, it’s likely they’ll eventually pick the wrong fight, and everything will crumble pretty fast after that.
I think the most likely target for such aggression under Trump is Iran, but such a move will not go down the same way as the Iraq war. Back in 2003, U.S. leadership still had some standing in the world and amongst its own people. It was only two years after 9/11, and the American government was still seen as a positive force in the world by many. George W. Bush and his pals used this goodwill to destroy a country that never attacked us, killing hundreds of thousands of people in the process. Even worse, the entire thing was based on lies and media propaganda. A decade and a half later, the U.S. has been involved in plenty of other overseas calamities, but none as major as Iraq. Any new major conflict would happen in a world where the U.S. is far more despised than it was in 2003.
It’s sad to say it, but over the course of the 21st century the U.S. government has exposed itself as a corrupt bully, not just to the outside world, but also to its own people. Moreover, those in positions of power and influence in America either don’t recognize this reality or don’t care. It’s this sort of disconnected hubris combined with rampant internal corruption that is the true graveyard of empires. I think both allies and enemies abroad have had enough, and given the right opportunity, will let the U.S. sink.
As I explained in the post, Prepare for Impact – This is the Beginning of the End for U.S. Empire:
How is all this going to play out? Obviously nobody really knows, but I do think we’ve entered a new period in American history. I think it’s basically a crossing of the Rubicon moment for the American empire. Personally, I don’t expect a strong and visible military response from Russia in the near-term. I don’t think Putin wants to give the U.S. media and newly minted neocon Donald Trump an excuse to do anything truly crazy, which they can blame on Russia in the court of public opinion. I think Putin is too smart for that. Rather, what I think he’ll do is make all sorts of moves behind the scenes to weaken America’s economic power, while at the same time engaging in minor provocations to tempt the imbeciles in charge of U.S. foreign policy to make further mistakes abroad, to which they’ll emphatically oblige.
In other words, Russia will attempt to make the U.S. extend itself further in a region where no real success is possible, at the same time that the American economy deteriorates further. Recall that the current very weak economic “recovery” has been going on for nearly a decade. This cycle is very long in the tooth, and all Russia really needs to do is sit back, make some moves behind the scenes and allow the U.S. to collapse upon itself in its hubris and stupidity. This is precisely what I think is going to happen.
U.S. leadership is so delusional, and quite frankly stupid, that it thinks the answer to grave overseas threats is more aggression. The exact opposite is true. I’m of the view that both China and Russia are sitting back and just waiting for the U.S. to do something historically idiotic overseas.
Many Americans voted for Trump hoping that he would avoid such a scenario, but this optimism looks increasingly misplaced. As such, I expect a major military mistake in the years ahead which will set off a chain reaction that will ultimately deal a huge and very public blow to the U.S. empire. In other words, if you live another ten years you can expect to live through a period of rapid decay for the country as we know it.
While I believe such a collapse is extremely likely, it doesn’t mean the answer is to cower in fear as events begin to unfold. Rather, the better you understand the risks, the better prepared you’ll be to ride out the times ahead, thus providing a platform to turn a chaotic and dangerous situation into something positive.
So be a better person. Try to help people who need it. Spread ideas of decentralization and promote a worldwide movement away from centralized authoritarian structures wherever and whenever possible. The future is what we make of it, and the future can be very bright. To create a better world we’ll need a more conscious population grounded in decent behavior, and there’s no better place to start than with ourselves.
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In Liberty,
Michael Krieger
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Your analyses are very sharp, but to be a better person while armageddon unfolds overseas? Hard, isn’t it!?
I like the astute analysis. And part of the danger, of a major hot war in Iran or N. Korea for “regular folk” in the U.S. of A, is that Trump and his cabal will lobby the American people that they have to sacrifice for their misguided war effort. And this sacrifice can and will involve rationing of gas, rubber, even food. And of course, your money. They will want you to contribute to “the war effort”, for “our nation, and for us all”.
If Hillary had won by now we would already been in a war with Russia and probably China over N. Korea too. The election of Trump had bought the Amerikan empire a little time, that’s all. It’s too late to save it. If the economy doesn’t collapse soon it won’t be because the egotistical, incompetent, power mad traitors in Washington haven’t tried their best.
If HRC would have won, you would have not been able to e-mail anywhere as the radiation probably would killed 99% of the US population.
Our representatives in Washington have no real control over the economy, Rocket. They’re just following orders from on high.
The same applies to the United States militaristic foreign policy. It’s a self-serving clown show inside the beltway 24/7 365 days a year.
We the People have no one to blame for that reality, but ourselves. Nations always get the leaders that they deserve. To think otherwise is like arguing that water is not wet.
Amazing that you can predict the future. Your comment is nonsense since Clinton was not elected so what is there to be gained other than rationalize your vote for the absolute worst president in US history. I’m certain the founding fathers are proud of you.
In what universe does Russia not side with Iran in this war? We end up exactly where we would be if Hillary were elected.
Shallow piece, as if the US never was engaged in wars before, needless wars. No this plain Trump Bashing nothing more nothing less
The only thing that’s shallow is your comment. I relentlessly called out Obama on his wars for 8 years straight, so perhaps my principle is to be anti-unnecessary aggression abroad, as opposed to “anti-Trump.”
But that wouldn’t fit into the childish game of tribal politics everyone likes to play, so I get it.
So Temmie, what you’re saying is that needless wars are Ok as long as Trump is President, and to say otherwise is just Trump bashing?
And you speak to Michael about being shallow?!
Mike, your analysis is spot on.
I can see that people who voted Republican are determined to believe that whatever happens, it would have been worse and come sooner with Hillary. I disagree with that view, though I agree that Hillary would probably go down the war path eventually anyway. So the whole question is essentially academic, since we’ll never know for sure.
I’m actually more pessimistic, in that I sincerely think we are heading towards WWIII.I can’t tell where it would begin, because we have several candidates: North Korea, Iran, some new focus of instability in the Middle East (Turkey?), and let’s not forget, Ukraine and/or the Baltic republics.
But I suspect that once it gets started on one front, unlike in the past, it isn’t going to remain a regional conflict. It’s going to trigger an all-out war between US and part of NATO (I suspect some NATO countries, like Germany, will bow out when the rubber hits the road), on one side, and China, Russia and their friends, on the other.
Kudos for recognizing Toynbee’s cyclical theory of history. And a dash of Gibbon. It seems the Parthians will once again prevail.
Question: what % of the US population is capable of comprehending the dire scenario painted by this 3 article series?
IMHO if that number is less than 5%, then there will not be a post collapse ‘phoenix rising’ moment for the US.
Here is my logic for the umber 5% : the typical nuclear family is 4, so the 5% influences 3 others thus 20% of the population leads the balance 80% during the rebirth.
I welcome refinement of the logic and criticism.
Hey just found your stuff but it is pretty good, well thought out. I voted for Trump on the 1% chance he was different (0% for Hilliary) but…as soon as he started putting in wall street guys, bombing countries etc I knew he was the right’s obama – aka wall street/MIC stooge.
I concur with those who’ve said if Hillary had been elected we’d have been at war with Russia for some time. The ‘Globalist’ Neo Cons have had war with both China and Russia on the agenda since the original ‘Rebuilding America’s Defenses’ document. I say the original, as the current copies I’m finding online are redacted, the parts about wars with Russia and China being taken out.
In this scrap over N. Korea, which has been under Protocol two, ‘Economic War’ since the Korean war, is intended to ‘bait’ China into war was well.
Australia deploys for war with North Korea and confrontation with China
http://rinf.com/alt-news/newswire/australia-deploys-for-war-with-north-korea-and-confrontation-with-china/
The above article is an indication confrontation and war with China is already part of the ‘done deal’ in the planning. Nuclear war against China is fully fleshed out by Herman Khan at the Hudson Institute.
The sage advise is in the conclusion. I’ll add a line to it, avoid the military.
I can trace the plan to attack Iran all the way back to Israel and Oded Yenon, the journalist with ties to the Mossad. I can trace the Israeli push towards the Litani river in the 2006 Lebanon war all the way back to 1919 when early Zionists complained that the Allied partitioning of the Mideast should have included the Lebanon’s Litani river in Palestine.
Jim Rickards says the NYSE will have an at least 10% market correction because he expects the Chinese to devalue the yuan after their 19th Party Congress is over. It could get a lot worse. This correction will become a partisan anti-Trump issue for both Establishment Democrats and Republicans.
I expect the US military to seriously object to war with Iran. Iran is mass producing Mach 13 and Mach 14 missiles. The US has no defense against any missiles faster than Mach 10. Iran is building their own version of the S-400 anti-missile system. Iran has a fleet of drones capable of knocking planes out of the sky and of sinking US ships and destroying land based targets. Iran also has Russian made anti-ship weapons against which the US Navy has no defense.
I seriously doubt that professional soldiers will sign up for a war in which Iran will destroy US Central Command and our Persian Gulf fleet in the first 5 minutes.
The US Empire and the Deep State depend upon their ability to rob taxpayers. That might be coming to an abrupt halt because we can no longer afford to be silent.
$21 Trillion Went Missing From 2 US Agencies Since 1988.
https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/2017/10/03/21-trillion-went-missing-from-2-us-agencies-since-1988/
Collapse will be with in. Likely aided by BRICS as they get out of dollar gradually. US can’t supports it’s military if war breaks out. Most empire collapse with extended military which at some point refuse to fight as they understand that it is not worth it. Todays Russia and China are fully capable of resisting US armed confrontations. Russia is totally out of petro dollar system. So is Iran and NK. That is why these countries are targeted.
I was involved in Ron Paul’s last run for president. After being unsuccessful, it was decided that we needed to rebuild the Republican Party from the ground up. I did my part and successfully ran for precinct committeeman twice.
When it came time for the meeting to elect party officers, I saw waiting for me a list of those selected to be the officers. There was no debate or actual vote count. The list was approved by voice. This happened both times. The question is how high up the party was the list determined? State level? National level? Global?
The difference I found with the Democrat Party is that they seem to be more honest about how much they rig the system.
I thought Trump was going to be different. He may be a doofus, but he was our doofus.
I now see no hope of changing things through the political process. I see our only hope is in a dollar collapse with the accompanying government collapse, which will lead to the breakup of the states from the union.
Great series. The Deep State, Israel and the MIC own this country and the disastrous Foreign Policy that has enabled the DS to make trillions. The problem now is that the country no longer has the money to continue this insanity so, as a last gasp to stay afloat centers on either a war with Iran or NK, take your pick. The end of empire is nigh.
So what is the solution to a nuclearized North Korea and potentially nuclearized Iran. Both of whom whom seem to be anti USA and certainly the regime of Iran hates both Israel and the USA. Previous administrations have failed to deal with the North Korean threat. Should the USA sit back and do nothing as this proliferation of nuclear arms continues? Im not for war at all. But how does one deal with the reality of it. Or do we just accept that these nations will have nukes and hope for the best that they wont strike and will keep the peace?JFK took a hard line at Russia when nukes were deployed so close to the USA in Cuba.
What is the possibility that the US leadership is not delusional or stupid but are intentionally bringing the country and empire to collapse as they plunder it with the intention of constructing out of the ashes “The New World Order”?